On December 6, President Obama made a television address from the Oval Office of the White House. It was an important occasion for Obama, as he would discuss the recent carnage in San Bernadino, California. But his face was devoid of animation. American television viewers would have expected to see their President speak more determinedly with a glitter in his eyes, as he showed his resolve to fight terrorism. His eyes betraying deep grief, Obama stated:

　　　　　“The threat from terrorism is real, but we will overcome it…we will prevail by being strong and smart, resilient and relentless. And by drawing upon every aspect of American power.”

　　　　　It was a nicely worded message. However, the Wall Street Journal sternly criticized it, noting that Obama had failed to come up with new countermeasures beyond proposing tighter gun control and a stricter review of the visa program.

　　　　　Three weeks earlier, on November 15, the daily had published an editorial entitled Wake Up, Mr. President. The well-known economic journal, which has consistently been critical of the indecisiveness of Obama’s foreign and domestic security policies, blasted him relentlessly, as 130 people were murdered in multiple terrorist attacks in Paris just after he noted in an appearance on ABC that “we have contained the Islamic State.”

　　　　　In light of the Paris incident, which took place as if to mock his statement, Obama pledged to redouble US efforts against the Islamic State (ISIS). But the daily noted: “… why should anyone believe him?…The remark is what he believes, or at least what he has wanted Americans to believe.”

　　　　　It then requested that Obama:

　　　　　1) Order the Pentagon to “roll back ISIS from all of its territory in Iraq and Syria as rapidly as possible, which means months not years”; and,

　　　　　2) Change his idea that America will be “safer if we stop provoking jihadists and treat them as common criminals” and review policies so as to strengthen the surveillance and interrogation of terrorist forces inside the US.

Hidden Islamic Extremists

　　　　　The Journal pointed out that the difference between the Paris carnage and the San Bernadino attack is that, while the former was instigated by a group of Islamic extremists, some of whom had been suspected as terrorists, the latter was carried out by two culprits who had passed as an ordinary couple. The difficult task of coping with hidden extremists is not a problem for the US alone. Within three weeks after the Paris attacks, extremist forces sympathetic with ISIS proceeded to kill nearly 500 citizens in four countries—Mali, Bangladesh, Great Britain, and the US. ISIS forces are killing a horrific number of innocent citizens in a terrifyingly wide range of areas.

　　　　　Naturally, there have been angry reactions against such killings. Regional elections were held in France on the same day as Obama’s address, with the far-right, anti-immigration National Front (NF) party headed by Marine Le Pen scoring huge gains. FN led in six of France’s 13 regions and will become the leading party and assume the post of president of the regional council if it wins run-offs on December 13. This momentum could successfully carry over to the French presidential elections scheduled for May 2017, and the possibility of Ms. Le Pen becoming the next President of France is real.

　　　　　FN’s stance that the country’s borders be closed to immigrants is in line with its nationalistic platform and the importance it attaches to the culture and language of France. Not only is Ms. Le Pen anti-immigration, she is also an advocate of a France that would be more independent of the EU, proposing to revive restrictions on the free movement of people, goods, and services. That Ms. Le Pen got such high support despite going against the principles of the EU is presumably due significantly to the fact that one of the culprits of the Paris attacks had entered France with the recent wave of Syrian refugees.

　　　　　It is not in France alone that right-wing forces have come to the fore in light of the recent terrorist attacks. In Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel has been in the vanguard of urging acceptance of immigrants, the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AID) party has risen to third in recent surveys polling support. In the general elections in Poland in October, the anti-refugee, right-wing Law and Justice party scored a landslide victory.

　　　　　Already, some 650,000 refugees have entered EU nations formally, with another 2.3 million still waiting to be accepted. Ms. Merkel maintains that each of the EU’s 28 member nations should accept its share of refugees in accordance with its national capabilities—an assertion that is in direct opposition to Ms. Le Pen’s.

　　　　　Tadae Nakubo, an international affairs expert who serves as deputy director of the Institute of National Fundamentals, a privately-financed Tokyo think tank that I head, observes:

　　　　　“I believe strongly that integration of the EU can only be maintained when its two strong member states—France and Germany—manage to cooperate with each other.　Should they set opposing policies, the EU’s foundation is bound to crumble. International relations are undergoing a colossal change at this historical juncture. China and Russia still remain pre-modern states in terms of political development, each following a course of action quite different from the democracies of the world. Those democracies understand the merits of multilateral cooperation, endeavoring to find solutions to problems within the framework of international organizations such as the EU and the United Nations. Terrorist forces, however, stand outside of this framework, deriding the basic scheme of today’s international community and trying to undermine it. Seemingly indifferent to these developments, China and Russia continue to blatantly wield their own form of power. The future appears quite opaque and unpleasant.”

　　　　　Amid such chaos, one thing is certain: It is no time for any nation to count on others. For Japan, how best to cope with China remains our most serious problem.

China Profiting from Terrorism

　　　　　Watch China today, and you will see that it is acting very discreetly in the wake of the recent terrorist attacks, trying to take advantage of the situation. The Chinese know that one’s best fishing is often done in turbulent waters.

　　　　　The attention of the international community is now directed at the war on terrorism, with neither France nor Germany any longer willing to make an issue of Russia’s theft of the Crimea Peninsula from Ukraine. The international community must not retreat from facing China’s aggression in the South China Sea in the same fashion. In this regard, Japan must further fortify its alliance with the US and strengthen cooperation with Australia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam in order to keep a check on China and secure the freedom of navigation in international waters. This must be done, of course, while emphasizing the need to resolve any pertinent problems peacefully, strictly honoring the rule of international law.

　　　　　Even if China should show a flexible posture, Japan must base its response on how China acts, not what it says. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is in the process of modernizing by eliminating 300,000 personnel from its force of 2.3 million. The PLA has taken a step towards a gigantic reorganization, reshuffling its seven military regions and enabling the integrated operation of its army, navy, air force, and a strategic missile unit. Beijing has also managed to make the yuan an international currency. And on December 7, a new memorial hall to the victims of the so-called “Nanjing Massacre” was opened. China’s intent to strengthen its military and economic power remains unchanged, as it intensifies its war on history against Japan.

　　　　　China’s threat is directed straight at Japan. In light of this fact, we must strengthen our own power—in terms of our economy as well as our security—as soon as possible. The longer term consequences of not taking action could be severe indeed.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 684 in the December 17, 2015 issue
Of The Weekly Shincho)