At the 14th Asian Security Summit held May 29-31 in Singapore, China openly played the villain not bothering to conceal its new found sense of itself as a great power playing by its own rules. Beijing unabashedly declared it was dead set on moving ahead with its expansion plans in the South China Sea—no matter how much the international communty might criticize its outrageous actions.

　　　　　China sent its message through Admiral Sun Jianquo, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army, who spoke on the last day of the annual conference, also known as the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue. In Sun’s vividly defiant remarks about the widespread criticism of China’s arbitrary actions, one could even sense contempt for the international community, including the US. This Chinese posture was a sea change from how China behaved at the same conference only a year ago.

　　　　　At last year’s conference, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gave the keynote address, calling for free navigation, respect of international law, and peaceful resolutions of conflicts in the South China Sea, without mentioning China by name. In sharp contrast, then US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel harshly criticized the Chinese actions.

　　　　　At the time, Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong, Admiral Sun’s predecessor, departed from his prepared statement to severely criticizing the US and Japan and denounce Abe. Wang’s impromptu and disparaging remarks lasted more than ten minutes, distinctly demonstrating that Beijing was indeed nervous about the ramifications of its arbitrary actions.

　　　　　This year, however, China’s posture was visibly different. Employing an address that strung together flowery words and elegant phrases, Admiral Sun declared time and again that China:

　　　　　―adheres to “the path of peaceful development” and is “committed to promoting regional and international prosperity and stability”;
　　　　　
　　　　　―desires “peace for all mankind”;
　　　　　
　　　　　―seeks “win-win relationships,” replacing “confrontation with cooperation” and “zero-sum games with mutual benefits…” ; and
　　　　　
　　　　　―upholds “justice while pursuing shared interests and valuing faith, friendship, justice and principles in international affairs.”

　　　　　Sun also claimed that the present situation in the South China sea is “on the whole peaceful and stable, and there has never been an issue with the freedom of navigation,” emphasizing: “China has carried out construction in the South China Sea mainly for the purpose of improving the functions of the relevant islands and reefs and the working and living conditions of personnel stationed there. While explaining the reclamation work and construction of infrastructure currently underway on the disputed islands is “geared to better perform China’s international responsibilities and obligations regarding maritime search and rescue (and) disaster prevention and relief,” Sun quite casually admitted that the project’s main purpose is to meet China’s “defense needs.” His remarks give one the impression that China no longer has any country to fear and that it is boastful of the power it has obtained with which anything under the sun is possible.

Trepidation of A Small Nation

　　　　　Sun made little effort to answer the host of questions from the floor following his address, quickly leaving the conference hall after simply noting those questions had already been amply answered in his remarks.

　　　　　Sun’s arrogant manner could well be construed as China’s reply to an address US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter made the day before. Stressing the importance of the Strait of Malacca in terms of international trade, especially in the smooth transport of energy, Carter criticized China by name and demanded construction be immediately suspended on the disputed islands, noting it is “unclear how much farther China will go.”

　　　　　Carter further stated that the US does not recognize sovereignty over artificial islets, that American vessels will cruise freely within 12 nautical miles of the land reclaimed by the Chinese, and that it will join hands with regional nations and international institutions in coping with this Chinese expansion in the South China Sea that violates international law and norms.

　　　　　The tone of Sun’s address, which by contrast was studded with hackneyed official Chinese platitudes, was markedly different from Carter’s, giving one the impression that the Chinese actually aren’t a bit concerned about what he had to say.

　　　　　Such a posture, which may be best described as a show of arrogance, presumably reflects China’s confidence that it is capable of discouraging other Asian nations from banding together with the US to cope with Beijing. Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong appears to have attested to this when he delivered the keynote address, reflecting trepidation on the part of a smaller state towards its bigger neighbor.

　　　　　Instead of criticizing China, Leet talked about other “claimant states taking unilateral actions in disputed areas, drilling for oil and gas, reclaiming land, setting up outposts, and reinforcing their military presence.” It is a fact that Vietnam and India are engaged in joint gas field development, while the Philippines has reclaimed a small patch of land for oil exploration. But these operations are on a ridiculously small scale—too small to compare with China’s. One assumes that the Singaporean leader, sensing he would have to refer to the ongoing disputes in the South China Sea in his address, must have contrived to employ references least critical of China.

　　　　　Lee also described as “a good sign” the fact that both the US and China “say that the broad Pacific Ocean is ‘vast enough’…for both powers to participate and compete peacefully…” In other words, Lee was saying it was a good thing that the US would accept the proposed Chinese request for a new major nation relationship with Washington that would in effect recognize the more than 80% of the South China Sea claimed by Beijing as part of China’s core interests. Obviously, Beijing was putting words in Lee’s mouth.

　　　　　In an apparent full abdication to China’s interpretation of the history of the war, Lee also voiced strong criticism of Japan. Said Lee: “(On) the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, Japan needs to acknowledge past wrongs, and Japanese public opinion needs to be more forthright in rejecting the more outrageous interpretations of history by right-wing academics and politicians. Japan has already expressed remorse or apologies for the war in general terms, including by Prime Minister Murayama, 20 years ago…but on specific issues like comfort women and the Nanjing Massacre, its positions have been less unequivocal.”

　　　　　Lee’s pro-Chinese address made me wonder if he would have yielded to China to such an extent had his father, the late Lee Kwan-yew, still been alive. Singapore’s first Prime Minister proved himself to be more than a good match against China in his 31 years (1959-1990) as the legendary leader of the small Southeast Asian city state. He died last March 23.

Triumph for China, Retreat for the US

　　　　　In July 2004, shortly before assuming office as prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong caused displeasure in Beijing by paying “a personal visit” to Taiwan. The Chinese government immediately issued a statement harshly critical of Lee, warning that his visit would result in “serious consequences.” This apparently so cowed Lee that he made a point of declaring during his address at Singapore’s Independence Day gathering in August that he would not support Taiwan’s independence.

　　　　　Viewed from Beijing, Lee must be seen as a Southeast Asian leader quite easy to deal with—in the same way as leaders of the other Southeast Asian states are that are significantly weaker than China militarily and economically.

　　　　　Even if the US asserts it will align itself with the nations of the region, China—which regards might as right—is well aware of the limits to the power of the Obama administration. If the US decides, as it has warned, to send its aircraft and vessels within the 12-mile territorial limits claimed by the Chinese around the man-made islets, demonstrating its readiness for further military deployment, China may agree to suspend reclamation operations, albeit temporarily. Even then, the artificial islets and infrastructure that have already been built will remain as proof that China has managed to establish strategic footholds in the South China Sea.

　　　　　If, however, the Obama administration fails to resort to force, China will undeniably take the opportunity to swiftly forge ahead with the rest of the reclamation work, managing to put the entire South China Sea under its control. In that case, the South China Sea will become a stronghold for China’s second strike capability targeting the US. Either way, it will be a triumph for China and a retreat for the US.

　　　　　Faced with its worst security crisis in the region since the end of World War II, there is just one thing Japan can and must do—work closely with the US to develop a strong deterrence against China. Unless we decide to grapple with the task with all our might, not only the nations bordering on the South China Sea but Japan itself will be picked off by China, one by one. US-Japan relations have entered a new stage of strengthening alliance following Abe’s successful state visit to Washington in April. Enhancing our own national strength is the only way to realize the goal.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 658 in the June 11, 2015 issue of The Weekly Shincho)