Nothing reveals China’s true intentions more clearly than the scores of aerial images the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) carried recently on its home page. The real extent and scope of ruthless aggressiveness with which China has fiercely been engaged in land reclamation operations in the South China Sea cannot readily be conveyed by words alone.

　　　　　This group of photographs vividly depicting large-scale Chinese land-fill operations makes one realize a host of nations—not only Southeast Asian countries but also Japan, India, Australia, and the US—could end up suffering serious setbacks to their national interests.

　　　　　A letter sent on March 19 to US Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Ashton Carter by four influential Republican and Democratic senators was filled with a sense of urgency concerning the situation in the South China Sea. The senators, including John McCain, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Bob Coker, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, sounded an alarm over the scale and speed of China’s “aggressive” land reclamation, stressing the need for a comprehensive US strategy to slow or stop the Chinese efforts. The Chinese action poses a threat to “long-standing interests of the United States, as well as our allies and partners,” noted the senators.

　　　　　China is increasing its pace of land reclamation on a number of islands in the South China Sea, ignoring protests by the nations that claim sovereignty over them, as the senators’ letter pointed out. In the past year, China has created about 114,000 square meters (some 28 acres) of reclaimed land on Gaven Reef, while transforming the previously submerged Johnson Reef into a 100,000 square meter (25 acres) “island” and increasing Fiery Cross Reef in size more than 11-fold since last August.

　　　　　All these activities run counter to the spirit of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) that the US and the member nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) exchanged with China in 2002. Senator McCain and his colleagues maintain that, contrary to the agreement, China is bent on creating “a quantitative change that appears designed to alter the status quo.”

　　　　　If the present pace of land reclamation continues, Chinese fishing boats, patrol ships, and battle ships belonging to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy will be permanently stationed in these regions, with PLA Air Force planes taking off and landing at will, significantly improving the PLA’s logistic capabilities. Any attempt by China to militarize the artificial islands could “embolden Beijing to declare a new air defense zone in the South China Sea like it announced in 2013 in an area contested with Japan,” warn McCain and his colleagues.

Dysfunction of US Administration

　　　　　Ships from nations around the world, including Japan and the United States, now freely cruise the South China Sea. If China’s sovereignty over the sea is realized through the construction of military bases and other facilities, however, the South China Sea is bound to become a “closed sea”—a breeding ground for a larger Chinese threat. That is why the four senators are urging the US government to work out a clear-cut national strategy aimed at resolutely coping with China’s coercive actions.

　　　　　There is a serious and growing concern about China’s continuous military build-up. The bipartisan US-China Economic and Security Review Commission already warned last November 20 that China’s nuclear arsenal is likely to grow and modernize in the next three to five years, weakening “US extended deterrence, particularly with respect to Japan.” That a bipartisan US government commission would declare that the US may not be able to fully defend Japan has far-reaching implications.

　　　　　This sense of serious concern is shared firmly by the US armed forces. In Canberra, Australia, on March 31, Admiral Harry Harris Jr., Commander of the US Pacific Fleet, remarked: “China is creating a great wall of sand (in the South China Sea) with dredges and bulldozers over the course of months.”

　　　　　China conceived the Great Wall in the third century B.C. to prevent incursions of barbaric nomads. In the 21st century, it is creating great seawalls of sand in order to deny its archrival the US access to the South China Sea and the western Pacific Ocean.

　　　　　As the American naval commanding officer for the region, Admiral Harris’s views carry a good deal of weight, and his comments about “a great wall of sand” quickly raced across the globe. CSIS further brought home the reality of China’s actions by posting its 60 some aerial images together with this description: “(China is) building artificial land by pumping sand on to live coral reefs—some of them submerged—and paving them over with concrete, and has now created over 4 square kilometers (1.5 square miles) of artificial landmass.”

　　　　　Harris quoted author Robert Kaplan as saying in his recent book Asia’s Caldron: “Europe is a landscape and East Asia is a seascape. Therein lies a critical difference between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Because of the way that geography illuminates and sets priorities, the physical contours of East Asia argue for a naval century.” The admiral noted that American leaders recognize the 21st century is going to be “an Indo-Asia-Pacific century,” with the region playing the most important strategic role for the US, stressing: “That is why we are conducting a whole-of-government rebalance (Obama’s strategic pivot to East Asia). Our commitment to the rebalance remains steadfast; we are on pace to have 60% of our Navy based in the Pacific Fleet by 2020.”

　　　　　That said, the reality is that the Obama administration has become largely non-functional at this point in its term. No matter what critical situation the Department of Defense or the Commander-in-Chief of the US Pacific Fleet may report to the President, no matter how many times influential members of the Congress may sound the alarm, I doubt if the White House is capable of initiating a bold new strategy toward China.

　　　　　Viewed from Japan, one can definitely feel that the US is at least beginning to realize the Chinese peril more clearly than before. And yet in the same way the Obama Administration has failed to work out effective military countermeasures against China, it also consistently lags behind in countering Beijing’ moves on the international economic and financial fronts.

Credibility of AIIB Should Naturally Be Questioned

　　　　　As regards the China-led Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the US sadly could not prevent Beijing from driving a wedge between Washington and London, which had for long maintained a “special relationship.” In the fall of 2014, Japan, the US, and European nations were seen to be in full agreement in taking a rain check on joining the AIIB, with German Federal Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schaeble playing a key role representing the chair country of the G7 nations. But China has come from behind to score a dramatic win.

　　　　　On March 12, after Britain abruptly announced its readiness to join the AIIB as a founding member, US Secretary of Finance Jacob Lew reportedly called British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne from Washington, rattling away for a half hour in a vain effort to have Britain reverse its decision. Needless to say, Britain stuck to its guns, while a number of European nations, such as France, Germany, and Italy followed suit. In other words, a “quantitative change” has occurred in international finance.

　　　　　What concrete results will come out of this latest development in international finance remains to be seen. Although China is currently recruiting international financial experts in order to start up the AIIB as a world-class institution, the results of such an approach can only be judged in the future.

　　　　　Under the circumstances, it is quite natural to question if fair and transparent financing and fund management, convincing enough to satisfy the international community, is at all possible under the one-party dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party. Eradication of corruption is one of the biggest undertakings currently pursued by Chairman Xi Jinping. Can it really be possible for a political party or a state, incapable so far of managing the funds of the state, to be expected to conduct fair management of investments by foreign governments?

　　　　　As the founder of the AIIB, how is it possible for China to account for its coercive “incursions” into foreign lands and seas, suppression of various minorities, and restrictions on freedom? Or does China mean to claim fairness will prevail when it comes to international financing—despite its lack of readiness to honor international law?

　　　　　With China having yet to answer these questions, I believe Japan and the US have done the right thing by not joining the AIIB. The two allies must urgently takenecessary measures to significantly improve the　functions of the Asia Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank so that the choice they have made will continue to remain the correct course of action.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 653 in the April 30, 2015 issue of The Weekly Shincho)