The Japan Institute for National Fundamentals (JINF), a privately financed Tokyo think tank that I head, sponsored an international symposium late last month, entitled “70 Years after World War II: How Should We Cope with the Tectonic Shift in Global Geopolitics?” Panelists from four nations—China, India, Japan, and the US—were initially scheduled to participate in the discussions. However, the Chinese representative sent JINF an email at the last minute, informing us that he regrettably could not fly to Tokyo.

　　　　　What exactly happened to this prominent Renmin University professor is anybody’s guess, although a variety of interpretations are possible. I was instantly reminded afresh that China indeed is a very difficult country to live in for those who adore freedom of speech.

　　　　　The symposium itself was a great success despite the absence of the Chinese representative, with a lively and intellectually rigorous exchange of views among the panelists on how to interpret, and cope with, changes in US and China policies amid this historic shift in global geopolitics.

　　　　　Seventy years after the end of the last world war, no one would disagree that the world has undergone a major sea change. The international situation surrounding Japan having never been so harsh, it is not necessary to reiterate that Japan will be compelled to walk a very difficult path unless it copes prudently with this global reality. The first major factor contributing to this change is China’s tenacious pursuit of a dominant position on the world stage. The second factor: the weak-kneed posture on the part of the US which, despite its standing as the world’s strongest nation, can now react only very passively to China’s historic challenge because the American leader lacks a world view and a grand international strategy.

　　　　　Against such a backdrop, China’s actions in America’s backyard—central America—are raising eyebrows. Late last month, a Chinese firm began construction of the ambitious Nicaragua Canal project aimed at linking the Pacific Ocean with the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic. Many problems have been pointed out in connection with the 175-mile project, including its negative effects on the environment. Also, questions have been raised about whether the required US$50 billion could be obtained. And yet, the Chinese are said to be aiming for a completion of the project by 2020, the year Tokyo will host another Olympic Games. China’s investment in Nicaragua brings to mind several other related topics.

China’s Evolution from Continental State to Maritime State

　　　　　The first thing that comes to mind is the impact that the completion of the Panama Canal left on international politics. President Theodore Roosevelt, alarmed by Japan’s victory over Russia in the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905), had Admiral Alfred T. Mahan—his friend and president of the US Naval War College at the time—analyze the causes of Japan’s victory, and then proceeded with construction of the Panama Canal at least partially in response to that Japanese victory.

　　　　　When the canal was completed in 1914, it became possible for the US Navy to deploy much more quickly from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. The opening of the canal provided an immeasurable geopolitical advantage to the US, enabling it to climb quickly to the new status of a super power, replacing Great Britain.

　　　　　And now, China has undertaken the Nicaragua Canal project not far from the Panama Canal. How strongly will it impact the economy and military balance of the world when it is completed?

　　　　　In connection with the scheduled completion of the canal in 2020, I am also reminded of what happened in 1964 when Tokyo hosted Asia’s first Olympics. At a time when almost all Japanese were celebrating the Olympics—a “festival of sports and friendship for all mankind,” as Japanese liked to call it then—the Chinese were also celebrating their feat of an entirely different nature: they were marking the success of China’s first nuclear test.

　　　　　So different were the reasons for joy demonstrated by the two peoples separated by only a narrow strip of water. Something similar happened six years later in 1970. While the Japanese celebrated Expo ’70, Asia’s first world exposition, the Chinese rejoiced over a successful test of China’s DF-4 medium range missile, which was easily within range of all military bases in Japan.

　　　　　Will such markedly contrasting scenes be reenacted in 2020—the Japanese celebrating their second Tokyo Olympics and the Chinese the completion of a canal in Nicaragua as a formidable geopolitical and strategic fortress?

　　　　　Another point of concern is the actual construction of this canal in Nicaragua, and what this says more broadly about the China-US relationship. While it is quite possible to regard this as another of China’s daring challenges to the US, I cannot help thinking whether so grand a project can at all be possible with absolutely no collaboration from the US.

　　　　　About the time when the construction of the Nicaragua Canal began, a portion of China’s South-North Water Diversion Project (total construction cost: US$33billion) was completed. Now that China has presumably gained self-confidence over this success, one should not count out the possibility of China venturing to launch construction of another canal—one designed to link the Andaman Sea with the Gulf of Thailand through the Kra Isthmus in southern Thailand and Myanmaron the Malay Peninsula.

　　　　　Even as China aggressively expands its influence, however, confrontation is not the only form of its relationship with the US. In view of their economic interdependence, the US and China have forged an inseparable relationship, enabling them to exercise ingenuity in securing the path to co-existence while still competing against each other. Unless Japan rids itself of preoccupied notions and successfully comprehends the true nature of US-China relations, it will likely face international isolation.

　　　　　With that in mind, let us imagine the worst-case scenario. That would be a world in which China develops a grand strategy to dominate all the seas of the world, first completing the Nicaragua Canal, allowing its naval fleets to crisscross the Atlantic and the Pacific as if they owned both oceans; and then securing the South China Sea in essence as its own inland sea, before integrating that body of water with the Indian Ocean. Assuming China is determined to recreate a 21st century imperial Middle Kingdom by evolving from a continental power to a maritime power, we should have already begun working out powerful countermeasures to outwit the Chinese.

To Survive, Japan Must Accurately Read US and China Intentions

　　　　　However, the Obama administration appears to be sadly at its wit’s end when it comes to effective countermeasures against China. During the symposium in Tokyo, Professor Author Waldron of the University of Pennsylvania recounted an interesting incident of US-China relations vis-à-vis Japan, citing the historic Richard Nixon-Mao Zedong meeting in Beijing on February 21, 1972, quoting Nixon as telling Mao:

　　　　　“We must ask ourselves, what is the future of Japan? Is it better—here I know we have disagreements—is it better for Japan to be neutral, totally defenseless, or it is better for a time for Japan to have some relationship with the United States?”

　　　　　So the US and China were poised to settle a critically important matter for Japan between themselves—something that could altogether change the framework of the political and military framework of the world. The Nixon-Mao summit is the prototype of the “new big-nation relationship” Beijing has persistently been appealing to Washington to agree to. Seven months before the Nixon-Mao meeting, in July 1971, Kissinger told Premier Chou En-lai that the US forces in Japan “…(keep) Japan from pursuing aggressive policies… and enable the Japanese to postpone their rearmament…we are not using Japan against you…” Sandwiched between these two giants—the US and China—Japan must accurately interpret their intentions in order to survive.

　　　　　We must always bear in mind our own national interests. Only by doing so will Japan be able to untangle the complexities of international relations and walk its own independent path. In international politics, national interests count. That is why international relations keep evolving, with immutable national interests as the determining factor. Henry Kissinger, who once was on his guard against Japan, remarking publicly that Japan could not be trusted with military capabilities, has since apparently changed his mind, saying now that Japan can be a normal nation. I hate to sound too cynical, but such a turnaround on the part of President Nixon’s former national security advisor is due a great deal to the growing Chinese threat.

　　　　　Because of this very real threat from China, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Japan now have a chance to bring about needed change in the country’s self-defense structure.　With this in mind, I　look forward to this administration legislating the right to collective self-defense, strengthening the US-Japan security framework, and moving forward on a public discussion aimed at a revision of our constitution.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 638 in the January 15 issue of The Weekly Shincho)