There is no use accusing China of being “unreasonable.” We are dealing with a big, recalcitrant Asian neighbor which has launched absurd infractions against Japan over the Senkakus in the East China Sea – four small islands which Tokyo has recently nationalized. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) administration of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is in a hopeless position, making one wonder if it really can safeguard Japan’s security and territorial integrity. Author/journalist Yoshiko Sakurai probes the worst national defense and territorial crisis of post-war Japan.

　　　The crisis over the Senkaku Island is forcing Japan to ask if it has the spirit to safeguard its territorial integrity – the pillar of any country’s sovereignty – even if it means taking up arms.

　　　Issues involving sovereignty are vital and different from other international issues. With the future of Japan’s four strategically important little islands at stake, Japan must express its determination and power to defend its own land.

　　　We see from the experiences of Southeast Asian nations that China deprived them of their indigenous land and that diplomatic negotiations alone cannot resolve land disputes. Even if a nation is determined to hold on to its own territory, China will still try to wrest it away if the other country fails to demonstrate credible military power to defend itself.

　　　Japanese diplomacy has suffered a series of defeats over land issues – the Senkakus, the Takeshima Islets (claimed by South Korea), and the Kuriles (also known as Japan’s Russian-held Northern Territories, first occupied by the Soviet Union immediately after the end of World War II.) The failure arose from Japan trying to cope with the land sovereignty issue by diplomatic negotiations aimed at middle-ground compromises. But sovereignty matters are no commercial transactions. They have to be pursued with a full-blast national determination.

　　　China stands in sharp contrast to this inward-looking Japanese posture. China has forcibly deprived neighboring countries – including Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan – of their territory. It should be remembered that China is the rare nation that threatens territorial expansion by use of force since World War II.

　　　As the Japanese government prepared to nationalize the Senkakus, Premier Wen Jiabao, raising his forefinger in obvious anger, said: “China and its people will never budge even half an inch over the sovereignty and territorial issue.”

　　　China’s official Liberation Army Daily echoed Wen’s sentiments, “strictly warning” the Japanese government that the Chinese “have the determination and capability to defend our territorial sovereignty.” The Chinese thus hinted its willingness to engage in hostile operations against Japan.

　　　Deputy Premier Li Keqiang, likening Japan to “a fascist state,” said its action in nationalizing “constitutes a serious challenge to post-war international order.”

　　　Recent anti-Japanese demonstrations in China – some of them better described as riots – have been the largest and worst since 1972, when Tokyo and Beijing normalized diplomatic relations. The Chinese government has so far refused to suppress the demonstrations, presumably because officials wish to deliver a message to Japan that the government and the people of China will not sit idly by if Japan tries to deprive China of its sovereign territory – the Senkakus. So the Chinese have assumed a posture anticipating the likelihood of a war if push comes to shove. The Zhongnanhai is hyping the crisis to deflect domestic discontent away from corruption and a shaky regime transition. At this point, the relationship between Japan and China should be viewed as in a state of emergency.

　　　Sadly, the Noda administration seems unaware of the crisis. The JDP seems to think that “a solution can be worked out if the two sides talk it over sincerely,” or, “the situation will eventually quiet down if the Japanese side deals with it cooly and dispassionately.”

　　　Noda reportedly considered Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara’s request to build an anchorage for small fishing craft and a lighthouse on Uotsuri-jima Island after the islands were nationalized. On the other hand, Deputy Prime Minister Katsuya Okada and the Foreign Ministry, including Minister Koichiro Gemba, were said to be genuinely afraid of Chinese anger over naturalization. There was reportedly even an argument within the Foreign Ministry over removing all traces of Japanese ownership from Uotsuri-jima. Their fears infected Prime Minister Noda, leading to a total absence of national integrity and the government desperately trying to avoid friction with Beijing. Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura noted to the press that the situation on the Senkaku islands will remain absolutely unchanged.

　　　Instead of such fears, the chief government spokesman should have made it absolutely clear that the Senkakus are Japan’s rightful territory; that it is China that is reacting extremely irrationally to the nationalization issue; and that Japan is determined to take all necessary measures for the defense of the disputed islands.

　　　The only thing Mr. Fujimura said, feebly and matter-of-factly, was that “nationalization will not change things on the islands.” I suspect Messrs. Okada, Gemba, and officials of the Foreign Ministry persuaded Mr. Fujimura to take his ultra-cautious line.

China’s Sinister “A2/AD” Strategy

Is the Foreign Ministry really qualified to be in charge of Japan’s security? Over the years, the ministry has neglected to properly analyze China’s intentions or to consider countermeasures that other Asian nations used to cope with their outrageous neighbor, China. Nor has the ministry bothered to take precautionary steps in anticipation of China’s likely moves in the East China Sea, based on its behavior in the South China Sea.

　　　For nearly 40 years since 1974, China has practiced blackmail diplomacy towards the South China Sea nations. When South Vietnam attempted to claim the Paracel Islands in 1974, China won a brief battle and kept the islands (now listed as part of Hainan Province). Then in 1995, China forcibly wrested the Mischief Reef of the Spratly Islands from the Philippines. Both military actions constituted acts of aggression in which China knew its adversary was weak and US forces were too occupied to mind the tiny territorial disputes. (China’s claims to the Paracel and Spratlys go back to the Nationalists’ absurd “nine-dash line” in 1940.)

　　　As a result, China has constructed a full-fledged 2,600-meter runway in the Paracels and a reinforced concrete military facility, complete with anti-aircraft, anti-ship artilleries, a heliport, and a breakwater for large military vessels on Mischief Reef in the Spratlys. Each of these facilities has significantly added to China’s important military stronghold in that part of the world.

　　　The basic Chinese policy is to take anything it can. Even small Southeast Asian nations now understand the true nature of Chinese diplomacy. It is only the Japanese Foreign Ministry that is still incapable of seeing through it.

　　　China is currently perfecting a new strategy called “Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD).”

　　　A2 aims at blocking US naval intervention when China deploys militarily within the so-called “second island chain” stretching from the Bonin Islands to northern Australia, embracing virtually the whole of the Western Pacific. If successful, this strategy will prevent the US Navy from entering the vast sea area.

　　　AD aims at disabling US forces from deploying freely in the sea area along the “first island chain” stretching from the Japanese archipelago to Taiwan and the Philippines. Under this strategy, the Chinese would launch missiles or aircraft from land bases, while sending out destroyers, missile ships, and submarines.

　　　It is here worthwhile to quote from Sumihiko Kawamura’s recent book, The Real Strength of the Chinese Navy Out To Wrest the Senkakus from Japan (Shogakkan 101 New Books, Tokyo; August 2019): “Once one recognizes their glaring ambition, one can easily comprehend the sheer degree of seriousness with which the Chinese are dead set on claiming the South China Sea, and the East China Sea, which includes the Senkakus, as their own. Malaysia was alerted by China’s ambitions from early on and has taken precautionary measures to protect its land and sea against aggressive Chinese moves in the South China Sea. In 1985, it managed to build a man-made island out of Swallow Reef, known popularly as Layang Layang, measuring seven by two kilometers. There Malaysia has built a runway and allows its navy to be permanently stationed.”

　　　In 1992, when China enacted its Law on the Territorial Sea declaring all the seas around China, including the South and East China Seas, as well as the Yellow Sea, as legitimately belonging to China, Malaysia’s Joint Chief of Staff said, “It’s a war.” He couldn’t be more correct. Malaysia has since deployed destroyers, patrol planes, and submarines, among other things, in the nearby seas, while China’s Maritime Surveillance has continued to send patrol ships, including the Haijian 86, to the same area.

　　　In 2010, when China erected a stone monument on James Reef – the southernmost of the Spratlys – with an inscription declaring that it is “China’s southernmost territory,” Malaysia was so offended by this act that it immediately conducted submarine maneuvers in the area and built an air base in Kota Kinabalu on Borneo. Prime Minister Najib then visited the base to show support for the soldiers. (Aforementioned book.)

　　　Author Kawamura describes the series of Malaysian moves as “tantamount to Japan’s stationing the Japanese Self Defense Forces (JSDF) on the Senkakus, with the prime minister landing on the islands and comforting the men there.”

Needed: More Collaboration between Japan and the US

　　　The little Republic of Palau is fighting, too. Last March, a Chinese ship violated its waters. Although disguised as a fishing boat, the ship had several large outboard motors, and looked every inch like a spy ship. A Palauan patrol boat shot at the “fishing boat” as it tried to escape at the sight of the patrol boat, killing one sailor. A Chinese mother boat moored offshore set itself on fire, and  25 Chinese crew members were arrested. The tiny republic, with only 20,000 inhabitants and no national armed forces, subsequently managed to obtain payments from China of US$1,000 fine per head when it released the crewmen after 17 days. Small though it is, the Republic of Palau faced up to China’s violation full of spirit. However, Palau’s location within the second island line is viewed by China as a nation of vital strategic importance. Therefore, China will not give up on Palau, although it has decided to retreat for the time being. This is all the more reason why Japan and the US should not remain disinterested in Palauan affairs.

　　　The Senkaku Islands occupy a strategic position in the Asia-Pacific region just as important as Palau’s.

　　　The area’s abundant undersea natural resources are the treasure of Japan. At the same time, the tallest peak on Uotsuri-jima Island, 360 meters high, is needed to watch Chinese activities in the air and waters around the Senkakus. With high-performance JSDF radar positioned there, the activities of Chinese ships can be observed beyond the Japanese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). By adding radar on Uotsuri-Jima to the radar network maintained on Miyakojima, Japan’s southernmost island, our surveillance network vis-à-vis China will be significantly expanded.

　　　On the other hand, should Japan lose the Senkakus to China, it will become understandably difficult for the US Seventh Fleet and the Japan Maritime Self Defense forces to approach the Straits of Taiwan, creating an environment favorable for China’s forcible annexation of Taiwan. And should Taiwan, located at the entrance to the South China Sea, fall to China, US and Japanese forces will be denied easy access to the South China Sea, setting the stage for South East Asian nations to come under tough Chinese pressure. Viewed in this light, one can safely say the Senkaku Islands constitute a decisively vital strategic link for the peace and order in Asia-Pacific.

　　　In order for Japan to continue to protect and defend the Senkakus, no effort should be spared to concentrate JMSD forces on the islands as expeditiously as possible, to prevent any Chinese from landing. Chinese plundering of land in the South China Sea began with men in the guise of innocent fishermen illegally landing on various reefs and islands. In 1978, several hundred armed Chinese boats rushed towards the Senkakus. Chinese may attempt to land en mass. Japan must be fully prepared for such unwelcome circumstances by immediately stationing police on the Senkakus.

　　　It will also be mandatory to deploy JMSDF warships not far from the islands just to be on the safe side.

　　　While it is important to establish a territorial defense manned by Japanese, we must also speed up overhauling the national budget for 2013. Incredibly, the DPJ is staying with a policy of drastically slashing next year’s defense budget. It is extremely dangerous for Japan alone to concentrate on arms reduction when all of the Asia-Pacific nations are expanding militarily in order to cope with China’s armed expansion. Any show of weakness or slackness invites Chinese intrusion. The unwise budget policy pursued by the Japanese government is a renunciation of its responsibility, for not only Japan and its people, but also the entire Asia-Pacific. The prime minister should review budget allotments and drastically increase the defense budget.

　　　Meanwhile, it was reported in late August that the PLA’s Second Artillery Corps conducted the first flight test of the DF-41 road-mobile ICBM on July 24. The DF-41 missile is a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 17,000 kilometers, designated to hit all the USA with multiple nuclear warheads. In preparation for hegemony in the South and East China Seas, China is steadily inching its way towards a stage where it will be capable of deploying missiles powerful enough to counter US moves to stand in its way.

　　　We can develop the ability to deter China as long as the US and Japan collaborate more closely than ever before. For that, it is mandatory to significantly increase the defense budget, and expedite deployment of the US Marines’ Ospreys in Okinawa so that the US and Japan together can strengthen the defense of Seinan-shoto – Japan’s southwestern islands off the southernmost main island of Kyushu and in the Okinawan archipelago. Japan should also immediately start discussions on a constitutional revision to enable it to exercise the right of collective self-defense and secure national defense preparedness by elevating the JSDF to full-fledged national armed forces.

　　　It is truly time for Japan to demonstrate a national resolve to preserve its sovereignty and territory even if its people may have to be required to take up arms – before being stuck with no way out.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 527 in the September 27, 2012 issue of The Weekly Shincho)