On January 14, presidential and parliamentary elections were held simultaneously in Taiwan ahead of some of the world’s most important nations -€ including Russia, France, the US, and South Korea -€ facing possible leadership changes this year. Although reelected, incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalist Party attracted some 670,000 less votes than in 2008, the total dropping from 7,560,000 to 6,890,000.The Nationalists won 64 seats in the 113-seat legislature, still commanding a majority needed to pass bills, but their lead over the opposition parties, including the leading Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was significantly reduced from four years ago when they nearly won three quarters of the seats, enough to have enabled a revision of the constitution. 　

　　　The DPP, backing Tsai Ing-wen as Taiwan’s first female presidential candidate, managed to collect 6,090,000 votes -€ 650,000 votes more than in 2008. Although the Democratic Progressives put up a fairly good fight increasing their seats to 40 from 32 before the elections, they fell short of overtaking the Nationalists.

　　　On the street corners of Taipei, the predominant opinion was that Ma’s reelection would create less chance of strained relations with the mainland than if Tsai had been elected, but that the Nationalists would not be able to run the country “as they like,” because both Ma and his incumbent party drew less votes than before, which will give the DPP enough power to more efficiently act as a check on the Nationalists.

　　　Although the crucial issue of the campaign was viewed as the economy, I seriously wonder whether this was right for Taiwan at this historical juncture. Foreign policy was taken up from the standpoint of how to maintain Taiwan’s existing relations with China. In point of fact, China has deployed more than 1,400 missiles on its coast aimed directly at Taiwan across the strait. These missiles are capable of being loaded with nuclear weapons. However, little time was devoted by the presidential candidates to discussing the reality of such grave military tensions across the strait or the broader threat to the security of the region. Instead, the candidates mainly debated the extent to which they each believe they would be able to maintain and expand economic interchange with China.

　　　Election campaigns devoid of discussions of the security matters for Taiwan, clearly the most direct target of China’s military threat, is abnormal in the true sense of the word. Koh Sekai, one of Taiwan’s foremost Japan experts who once headed the Taiwan Economic and Cultural Exchange Office in Tokyo, admits the Taiwanese are trapped in a vacuum which shuns debate about the military situation, noting:

　　　“Naturally, every Taiwanese is more than aware of the missiles deployed across the Strait. However, for him to live daily with that in mind is too heavy a psychological burden to shoulder. Perhaps the Taiwanese are trying not to think about it in order to live normal lives, although they haven’t forgotten about it at all.”

“The Elections Were Not Fair.”

　　　Hsiao Hsin-Huang, Director of the Institute of Sociology of Academia Sinica, points out that one of the factors contributing to the Nationalists’ victory was this element of fear. By this he means China has tacitly influenced the voters by implying Taiwan would pay heavily in military threat for any move to drift away from China. In other words, China secretly played the leading part in the elections.

　　　When Lee Teng-hui ran for president in the first democratic election held in post-war Taiwan in 1996, China blatantly interfered. Its approach of using military threat has since drastically expanded to a combination of influence-peddling involving business and intimidation of those who refuse to cooperate. This is the fourth Taiwanese presidential election I have covered;I honestly realize that the degree of China’s interference with the Taiwanese politics has steadily been stepped up over the years while China has skillfully sought to change the style of its formula for interference.

　　　As a member of the International Committee for Fair Elections in Taiwan (ICFET), an international team of volunteers set up in November 2011 to safeguard Taiwan’s democracy, I had a chance to observe the elections.

　　　In its final report, the ICEFT concluded that the elections were “open but not fair.”

　　　Obviously, to come up with visible examples of what was, or was not, fair in such elections is a difficult proposition. However, I believe it can credibly be stated that a typical example of invisible unfairness was the fear of the Chinese military threat which neither the candidates nor the voters dared take up openly, while a typical example of visible unfairness was the large number of votes cast for the China-friendly incumbent Nationalist Party under what could easily be determined as Chinese influence. Proprietors of Taiwanese businesses operating in mainland China encouraged their employees to return to Taiwan to vote on January 14, giving them paid leaves of absence and covering their travel expenses. Initially, 50% of the travel expenses were to be footed, but Taiwanese employees in several Chinese cities, including Chongquin, were said to be paid in full. Consequently, Taiwanese workers elsewhere in China quickly demanded that they be given equal treatment, with the remaining 50% paid immediately.

　　　At least 200,000 Taiwanese workers were estimated to have returned to Taiwan to vote under this arrangement. It is difficult to tell which political parties these workers actually voted for, but it certainly is not difficult to imagine they would have been enticed to support Ma beforehand. Taking into consideration the strong bond between Taiwanese businesses and the Chinese authorities, one can clearly discern the strong impact of the Chinese Communist Party behind such vote buying. This type of interference with Taiwanese politics by a foreign government poses a serious question about the fairness of the elections.

　　　Hsiao analyzes that financing factors, including the case just mentioned, significantly sustained Ma’s reelection, pointing to the incredibly abundant political funds the Nationalist Party boasts. He explains:

　　　“The Nationalist Party of Taiwan is probably the world’s richest political party. Nobody has an accurate grasp of the whole picture of the party’s enormous funds. But a primary characteristic of the Taiwanese economy is that a number of government-related businesses, especially those closely linked with the Nationalist Party, play a major role, occupying critical areas of the national economy. Taiwan must be described as a ‘tightly integrated state,’ in which the government party and the state can hardly be separated.”

Under China’s Control Some Day

　　　In a normal nation, the ruling party does not equal the state. However, as Hsiao claims, the Nationalist Party of Taiwan effectively equals the state. The assets the Nationalist Party owns are kept in various categories, including real estate, stocks, and securities, according to Hsiao, who points out that the ruling party is believed to annually net up to US$100 million in stock transactions alone, viewed conservatively. The party utilizes its ample financial resources to run its chapters across Taiwan, channeling funds and jobs through them, according to Hsiao.

　　　In Unfinished Democratization -€ Unfairness and Abnormalities in Elections in Taiwan , a report compiled by the Taiwan Brain Trust, a Taipei-headquartered private think tank, far larger numbers are stated in terms of net profits derived from securities transactions by the Nationalist Party.

　　　The numbers listed in the report are said to be quoted from a report on special investigations involving the Nationalist Party’s funds as published in March 2008 by the editor-in-chief of The Economist Daily and other contributors. According to this report, over an eight-year period between 2000 and 2007, the Nationalist Party sold stock worth US$11.3 billion, making a net profit of US$1.1 billion.

　　　It is also interesting to note that, according to this same document, the Nationalist Party was essentially bankrupt when it fled to Taiwan from the mainland, Chiang Kai-shek having used up virtually all of the party’s funds in its civil war with the Communist Party following Japan’s defeat in World War II. The records of the Finance Committee of the party show that the party was short of capital by some $800 million at the time.

　　　After its arrival in Taiwan, the finances of the party improved dramatically. It is said that much of this was actually due to the appropriation by the party of the assets of Japanese corporations and private individuals, as well as the Japanese government.

　　　What has made the asset building of the Nationalist Party possible today? Has its wealth been generated through fair and legal means? How should the Chinese military threat be met? By taking its eyes off of these more critical issues and instead focusing on the economy alone, Taiwan will find itself increasingly cowed by Chinese military might and dependent on China economically, eventually leading to outright rule by the mainland. The results of these recent elections have left me very concerned about the future of Taiwan.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 494 in the January 26, 2012 issue of The Weekly Shincho.)