Japanese Prime Yoshihiko Noda will soon have a chance to prove his worth by taking an important step to lead Japan to a stronger economic and security position. Will he be able to take it?

　　　Noda could have his chance at the 23^rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. For that, he will first need Diet support to allow Japan to participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Agreement as well as relax restrictions on the “three principles” on Japan’s armed exports, which has hampered the nation’s arms development program.

　　　Some see this as a decision point between Japan contributing to the peace, prosperity, and stability of the region, or continuing its inward-looking posture, which has often discouraged friendly nations.

　　　Asia/ Pacific nations are watching for new policies from Tokyo, including defense. Most desire Japan to become a responsible balancer against China, which is rapidly rising to global-power status.

　　　On October 16, the mass-circulation conservative Japanese daily Sankei Shimbun quoted RAND Corporation, a major non-profit U.S. think tank, on the possibility of China and Japan crossing swords over maritime boundaries, including the East China Sea -€ a reminder of Chinese naval high-handedness in the Asia /Pacific arena.

　　　In May 2009, Beijing abruptly drew a U-shaped line linking nine spots in the South China Sea, and claimed everything inside the “nine dotted line” as its sovereign territory, including the Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands. In March 2010, Chinese state councilor Da Bingquo told visiting U.S. Secretary of State James Steinberg and Jeffrey Bader, the then senior director of Asian Affairs on the National Security Council, that China regarded the South China Sea as a “core interest,” as vital as Taiwan and Tibet, in safeguarding its territorial integrity, and stressed it would make absolutely no compromise for any other nation on the South China Sea.

　　　Alarmed by the new Chinese claim, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) immediately began working out countermeasures. According to Sumihiko Kawamura, former Deputy Principal of the Japanese Self Defense Forces (JSDF) Joint Staff College, Vietnam has already purchased two frigates from Russia and is expecting to receive six of the latest model Kilo-class submarines and 12 SU-30mk fighter jets by 2013. Vietnam also has announced plans to renovate naval facilities at Cam Ranh Bay -€ the nation’s vital strategic stronghold first developed by the Americans during the Vietnam War -€ to berth foreign warships, including U.S. aircraft carriers.

China’s Double-Edged Diplomacy: It Can Smile or Get Tough

　　　Meanwhile, Malaysia has already procured two Scorpion nuclear submarines from the United States, and Indonesia is scheduled to buy two Russian-made submarines this year.

　　　Even the Philippines, which has made little military effort to ensure its security since it demanded the withdrawal of U.S. forces in 1992 and forced the closures of U.S. Naval Base Subic Bay and U.S. Clark Air Base, is now making plans to increase its military budget.

　　　The U.S. has identified itself as a Pacific nation, pledging to protect ASEAN nations. Facing a multinational stance to check China, Beijing quickly shifted policy. Today, China no longer refers to its “core interests” and maintains it has never made such a claim .The Chinese leadership, who can bury train accidents, appears to believe it can erase firm statements on its readiness to forcibly wrest land and sea territories from other nations with a simple denial that they ever mentioned them.

　　　China is also pursuing a “soft strategy.” On October 15 at the sixth plenum of the 17^th CPC (Communist Party of China) Central Committee in Beijing, President Hu Jintao, who is also Party chief, declared “promotion of the reform of China’s cultural system.”

　　　Clearly, Ho seeks to reevaluate Chinese culture and strengthen his nation’s global influence not only economically and culturally. Domestically, he is set to increase the Communist Party’s cultural influence, nip any anti-party, anti-government thoughts and movements in the bud, and contain public opinion aroused by the Internet and “Arab Spring.” He also wishes to block widespread anti-government criticisms over growing joblessness and recent train accidents. Internationally, Beijing is trying to influence the world via Chinese civilization and language, some of it through its overseas Confucius Institutes.

　　　China’s cultural strategy has always been paired closely with its enormous military might. It first resorts to economic and cultural measures while flexing immense military muscles simultaneously. That is why China has over the years engaged in what many view as abnormal military build-up on the seas and in outer space.

　　　Last August, China conducted successful sea trials of its first carrier, purchased from Ukraine, followed by construction of its first carrier with domestic technologies scheduled for completion by 2015. China plans a carrier fleet of several similar vessels by 2025. Last month, the Chinese put into orbit the “Tiangong” (Chinese for “Heavenly Castle) 1 module, with plans to launch the “Shenzhou (“Devine Ship”) 8 spacecraft in November, docking it with the module. China’s Great Space Station is expected to be completed in ten years,.

　　　A nation that dominates the oceans and outer space could rule the globe. China’s ambitious long-term strategy to achieve this goal is taking concrete shape. Its strategy, based on a “cultural or military” approach -€ or, “Smile or Get Tough” diplomacy -€ works quite conveniently for China as these approaches are interchangeable depending on circumstances.

　　　Under present geopolitical circumstances, the rest of the world must deal adroitly with China -€ the world’s most populous nation driven by insatiable ambitions for power. The Japanese should be well aware that their nation faces a grave risk of sinking unless it deals with China effectively. In order to safeguard Japan’s sovereignty, Japanese must overcome two dangerous gaps in Japanese national security and defense capability.

　　　The Noda administration must fill the vacuums before addressing the critical issues such as its arms exports principles. The gaps are a spiritual void created by Japan’s “peace constitution” and related laws, and a material void having to do with its military, which lacks the personnel and equipment which the world’s third largest economic power deserves.

Japan’s Defense Capability Is Full of Holes

　　　The Japanese constitution prevents the Japanese from even blocking armed aggressions by other nations, let alone imagining them. Instead, it naively counts on the goodwill of the international community to protect Japan. There are no laws in Japan, including the constitution, the Self Defense Forces laws, and all other rules and regulations, that protect its citizens against aggression or ﾂ黴€colossal natural disasters, such as the March 11 magnitude 9 Great East Japan Earthquake. It is as though national policy tells every citizen to remain hopelessly defenseless under all circumstances.

　　　Typical is the oft-repeated phrase -€ “Japan is committed to an exclusively defense-oriented policy” -€ which has appeared in the government’s defense white paper defining the nature of Japan’s national defense policy since the mid-1970s. Actually, it would be next to impossible -€ and meaningless -€ to draw a line between offense and defense when it comes to military affairs. Under this “defense only” rule, JSDF personnel theoretically cannot be deployed overseas, so they wait for contingencies to strike the Japanese archipelago. (But they served well in Cambodia and other places -€ to be sure, not in a fighting capacity.)

　　　The government should be aware that trouble inevitably occurs within the Japanese domain sometime. And yet, it was not until 2004 that the “Citizens Protection Law” was enacted that determines the authority of the central and local governments when mass evacuations become necessary. Tokyo had failed to protect the people’s lives and their property for 35 long years, naively expecting that its defense-oriented ideology would suffice.

　　　In December 2010, the administration of Naoto Kan, Noda’s predecessor, drew up a New National Defense Program Guideline. The guidelines were published four times in postwar Japan -€ 1976, 1995, 2004, and 2010 -€ but they each showed Japan’s diminished self-defense capability. For example, the Ground Self Defense Force shrank from 180, 000 to 160,000 before Kan, who further reduced it by 6,000 men. Meanwhile, escort ships, which constitute the mainstay of the Maritime Self Defense Force, have been slashed from 60 to 48. Fighter jets belonging to the Air Self Defense Force have been cut from 350 to the current 260.

　　　Japan’s defense capability is full of holes because the government keeps chanting slogans reflecting defense-oriented-only national defense and security policy as a peace-loving nation which one fought “the wrong war.”

　　　Trapped in defenselessness, Japan can become a target for hawkish nations, especially China, hungrily chasing their prey. The Noda administration must scrutinize the nature of the threats Japan faces today, determine the personnel and equipment needed to cope with them, and deliver the goods. For that, Noda must provide constitutional and other legal means to develop effective countermeasures. The APEC summit in November is an opportunity to see whether the Noda administration can forge new policies that defend Japan’s sovereignty.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 482 in the October 27, 2011 issue of The Weekly Shincho.)