In the wake of a September incident in which a Chinese trawler violated Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, Japan has continued to suffer serious setbacks. Having released the captain prematurely, Japan now faces a great danger of allowing China to take away a rich undersea natural gas deposit in the area in question.
　　　On September 25, the area around the Shirakaba (“Chunxiao” in Chinese) natural gas field in the East China Sea was encircled by a fleet of nine 2,000-ton class “Hai Jian 51” patrol ships belonging to China’s State Oceanic Administration.

　　　With one Hai Jian 51 leading the fleet, two others located 1,000 yards (914 meters) away from each other at 4 o’clock and 8 o’clock respectively followed, each heading a contingent of three identical ships. For over a week, the nine ships continued to patrol the waters around the Shirakaba gas field in a large circular route.

　　　The Hai Jian 51s are Chinese patrol ships that have long been engaged in extensive activities including undersea surveys within the Japanese exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in violation of the United Nations Law of the Sea Treaty of 1982. On September 11, one of them warned two Japan Coast Guard (JCG) vessels engaged in rightful marine surveys within Japan’s own EEZ to “immediately suspend operations in accordance with existing international treaties and Chinese domestic law,” claiming that the sea area “falls under the jurisdiction of China.” The Chinese boat then followed the JCG survey ships for the next two and a half days.

　　　It was the first time for as many as nine Hai Jian 51s to congregate in the same area – and also the very first time for them to sail in a formation. China obviously took this unusual step because it had gone ahead with unilateral gas drilling at Shirakaba, ignoring an agreement reached in 2008 with the government of Japan. China this time has obviously violated the inter-governmental agreement which stipulates that the gas field in the East China Sea will be jointly developed based on mutual consent, that details will be worked out through consultation, and that neither side will launch unilateral development without the other’s full understanding. It would seem natural to view the cruise of the nine Hai Jian 51s as a typical Chinese show of force to  restrain Japan, as China had naturally expected to draw bitter protests from Japan  against the unilateral drilling.

　　　That the Chinese have begun their drilling for natural gas at the Shirakaba gas field is obvious from intelligence gathered by P3C anti-submarine patrol aircraft of the Japan Air Self Defense Forces (JASDF). On September 18, mass circulation Japanese dailies, including the Asashi Shimbun and the Yomiuri Shimbun, carried aerial photos showing an obvious discoloration of the surface water in a wide expanse around the drilling platform.

　　　Discoloration of the seawater signifies the start of undersea drilling operations. Although unreported, a second discoloring of the surface water was recognized by JASDF aircraft on September 29.

　　　After the news of the first round of drilling had spread across Japan and with the second round about to begin, China must have been holding its breath, anticipating that there would finally be strong protest activities from Japan. The first drilling certainly caught the Japanese off guard. After a while, however, the whole of Japan — the government, the media, and the people — came to believe that the Chinese drilling had indeed begun. Therefore, the Chinese must have surmised, Japan would most likely mobilize a variety of warships and other vessels into the area around Shirakaba to protest against the Chinese action.

　　　That is precisely why the Chinese government took precautionary measures in the area around Shirakaba on September 25 by amassing three contingents made up of three Hai Jian 51 patrol ships each, as mentioned earlier, just before the second round of drilling began. The Chinese fleet remained in the area for more than a week to demonstrate China’s resolve to resort to force, if necessary, against anticipated Japanese protesters, who never showed up contrary to the Chinese expectations. As usual, a Chinese frigate was deployed about 160 kilometers (100 miles) north from where the Hai Jian 51s were, while, 300 kilometers (185 miles) away, two “Yu Zheng” fisheries patrol boats belonging to the fisheries section of the Chinese Agriculture Ministry, were staying put in the seas around the Senkaku Islands.

　　　However, contrary to Chinese expectations, the Japanese government chose not to make the slightest move.  What on earth were Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku up to in those eleven days between the first and the second drilling? September 17 happened to be the day for Kan to have to reshuffle his cabinet. The Kan administration, totally obsessed with surviving a fierce power struggle between the pro-Ozawa and anti-Ozawa camps within the ruling party DPJ, was in the midst of a political vacuum.

　　　It is highly questionable to what extent the prime minister paid attention, if any, to a string of information made available to him pertaining to the start of the Chinese drilling at Shirakaba. Obviously irritated by the stalemate in the spat between Japan and China following the arrest of the Chinese captain, the prime minister, for reasons only he knows, blew up at a group of bureaucrats who had come to brief him prior to his scheduled departure on September 22 for his diplomatic debut at the General Assembly of the United Nations. Meanwhile, instead of making efforts to stand firm on the principle of safeguarding Japan’s sovereignty regarding the Senkaku Islands, Sengoku was intent on developing a new pipeline for communications with China ostensibly to discuss Japan-China relations through a non-diplomatic channel. This was obvious in his decision to dispatch Goshi Hosono, former acting DPJ secretary-general, to Beijing. Undoubtedly, Sengoku must have been fully aware that China had launched unilateral gas field drilling operations amid the commotion involving the Senkaku incident, and that nine Chinese patrol boats had congregated in the area around the drilling platform. He must have easily anticipated a new round of drilling waiting ahead. And yet, both Kan and Sengoku did not dare take any countermeasures whatsoever.

An Incredible “Do-Nothing” Cabinet

　　　Comments a high-ranking government official on condition of anonymity: “The fact that the Chinese side amassed as many as nine Hai Jian 51s to patrol  the area around Shirakaba shows that they were quite nervous as they had prepared themselves for what they thought Japan would do to oppose China in the dispute. Remembering that Japan had previously pledged to take appropriate “countervailing measures” should China run counter to the spirit of cooperation, China expected Japan to resort to resolute action to manifest its intentions. However, no one showed up from Japan although the Chinese side waited around Shirakaba for a long period of time — not even a trace of a Japanese fishing boat. It must have come as a huge letdown to the Chinese.”

　　　The Hai Jian 51 patrol boats left the scene after Kan and Chinese premier Wen Jinbao chatted for 25 minutes in Brussels on October 4 during the 8^th Asia-Europe Meeting. It is obvious the patrol ships withdrew, with the Chinese side greatly relieved that Japan apparently no longer has the will to counter China.

　　　One is at a loss to find appropriate words to describe the state of mind of Messrs. Kan and Sengoku, who nonchalantly hold onto their “do-nothing” philosophy at a time when their nation’s resources are facing the risk of being whisked away and the national interests being precariously impaired. To be blunt, they are sadly devoid of the qualities to be the nation’s leaders.

　　　What were the causes of the discoloration that occurred twice in the sea area in question during the 12-day interval between September 17 and September 29? And, what will happen from now on? The answer appears plain and simple: There is a high possibility that China will start siphoning natural gas as early as November, when massive flames come off the gas rigs atop the tower of the drilling platform at Shirakaba.

　　　Explains Mr. Hirohide Hirai, chief of the oil and gas section of the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy:

　　　“The situation tends to differ depending on conditions of the sea as well as the seabed, but when drilling for undersea resources, generally, the sea bed is first drilled to a certain depth. Then, the drill is pulled out. The circumference of the hole created by the drilling is immediately solidified with cement to allow the drilling to continue on. While hardening the hole, huge amounts of excess cement, as well as sea-bed mud, are disposed of under water, which inevitably causes discoloration of the seawater. Actually, the discoloration disappears in a matter of a day or so. You repeat the process of drilling the hole and solidifying its circumference, time and again, at the end of which steel gas pipes are thrust into the gas field.”

　　　A huge reservoir of natural gas is believed to be deposited some 2,000 to 3,000 meters (6,560 to 9,840 feet) underwater in extensive areas around Shirakaba. How many days would be needed, then, for the Chinese drillers to reach the deposit? Possibly some two months, according to Mr. Hirai, if the Chinese are drilling for natural gas there at full blast. The Chinese drilling began on September 17. So, there is a good possibility that the Chinese drillers will reach the stage where gas will come spewing out as early as mid-November.

　　　Comments a Japanese expert who has engaged in oil and natural gas development for over 20 years:

　　　“When natural gas comes spewing out, we first remove sulfur, then a variety of other substances including carbon dioxide. What’s left is whitish gas resembling dense fog. We call it by the elegant name of “white diamond” but it actually sends forth a dreadful smell like that of a rotten egg and can often be lethal if more than a certain amount is accidentally inhaled. Above ground, this ‘white diamond’ is refrigerated down to minus 162 degrees Celsius in order to liquefy it, with its cubic content reduced to 1/600 its original volume. What you then have is liquefied natural gas (LNG) — the coveted clean energy source that emits absolutely no CO2.”

The Tables Have Turned ; A Trap Is Set

　　　Natural gas in the East China Sea is estimated to be of both high purity and excellent quality. The Shirakaba gas field extends from the Japan-China median line into an extensive area within the Japanese exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as well, and so, as matters stand now, Japan is running the risk of beginning to see its legitimate natural resources taken away by China in a matter of a month — or less.

　　　That is why the Japanese government has repeatedly warned that appropriate countermeasures will be taken should China attempt to start drilling  on its own. Seiji Maehara, appointed foreign minister on September 17, stressed at an evening news conference on the same day: “Japan will be sure to take appropriate countervailing measures if we confirm any signs of China’s drilling.” Despite Maehara’s remarks, however, the Japanese government has taken absolutely no action.

　　　Tadae Takubo, Professor Emeritus and an international affairs expert at Tokyo’s Kyorin University, sternly criticizes the responses of the Kan administration as “completely mistaken,” pointing out:

　　　“The Japanese Ambassador to China, Uichiro Niwa, has been summoned by the Chinese government five times since the Senkaku incident broke out, but don’t forget it is China that caused the incident in the first place. China violated Japanese territorial waters, and therefore the situation really called for Japan to summon the Chinese envoy to Tokyo five times to lodge a strong protest, which Japan regrettably failed to do.

　　　“When Japan arrested the Chinese trawler captain, it was China that one-sidedly postponed the second bilateral conference on joint development of the Shirakaba gas field, scheduled for mid-September. Before the incident, Japan was in a stronger position to push China to agree to resumption of the talks; since the incident, Japan is in a weakened position where it must plead with China to reopen the conference.  The tables have turned and Japan has slipped into a nasty trap set by China that is hard to get out of.”

　　　Having been caught in the Chinese trap, the Japanese government as well as leading Japanese media have attempted to interpret the situation as one in which China has had to resort to tough words and deeds towards Japan largely to appease the anti-Japanese sentiments of the Chinese public. However, nothing can be farther from the truth.

　　　An overwhelming majority of the Chinese, ill-informed as they are by their state-controlled media, have no doubt that the Senkaku territorial violation incident occurred because Japanese patrol boats roughed up the Chinese trawler, closing in on it and then ramming it. It was the Chinese government-run Xinhua News Agency that first passed on this version of the incident, representing the exact reverse of the truth. This, in turn, was reported widely by the hugely influential Huanqui Shibao (Global Times), a government-backed newspaper. From there on, a consensus based on erroneous information spread like wild fire, as explained earlier.

　　　Snaps Prof. Takubo: “Should the Chinese government be inclined to appease anti-Japanese public sentiments even to the slightest extent, they would first try to rectify the erroneous information on the origin of the incident which they themselves have distorted. But, so far, nothing of the sort has taken place. The Chinese government has been working on Japan time and again to subscribe to the view that they have no choice but to make Japan out to be the villain in order to cope with China’s residual anti-Japanese public opinion.”

　　　Since October 16, anti-Japanese demonstrations once again spread across a wide extent of China, including Chengdu and Mianyang in Sichuan province, Xian in Shaanxi province, and Zhengzhou in Henan province. The demonstrators have turned into mobs attacking and vandalizing Japanese-owned companies and shops.

　　　Reacting to the developments, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu had this to say:

　　　“It is understandable that some Chinese people expressed their indignation against the series of recent erroneous words and deeds of the Japanese side (concerning the Senkaku incident).”

　　　What does Mr. Ma mean by the “erroneous words and deeds” of Japan? Undoubtedly, it was the Chinese government which fabricated the incident resulting from China’s violation of Japanese territorial waters, then reported on it domestically as well as internationally. Japan’s assertion that the Senkaku Islands are a legitimate Japanese territory is well substantiated from a historical viewpoint, and it is China that has resorted to “erroneous words and deeds” in a blatant attempt to claim sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands. Trying to resort to threat of force to persuade the counterpart that black is white is like proving — inadvertently — that China is a nation that, despite its commendable growth, has no hesitation whatsoever about trampling underfoot the rule of international law.

　　　It is quite impudent of the Chinese government to issue instructions to student demonstrators to “carry out (anti-Japanese demonstrations) based on rule of law and rationally,” when, in fact, it is practicing 19^th century imperialism.

　　　Actually, China’s get-tough diplomacy toward Japan is in itself a reflection of an extraordinary crisis confronting China both at home and abroad. China’s suppression of Nobel Peace Prize laureate and prominent human rights activist Liu Xiaobo and his wife Liu Xia has given the world an unmistakable impression that there is something extremely abnormal about the Chinese government.

　　　As expected, the Chinese government summoned Norway’s  ambassador to Beijing to protest the decision by the Norwegian Nobel Committee – a private body — cancelling a scheduled high-level talk with the Norwegian Minister of Fisheries and Off-Shore Affairs. A scheduled visit to China by Norway’s 17 top bureaucrats, as well as a Norwegian musical show scheduled in Beijin as part of a China-Norway cultural exchange program, were also called off. By the same token, a Chinese delegation slated to visit Norway called off their trip.

　　　Each of these countermeasures taken by China makes one react with a “Oops, China did it again.” With one’s eyes closed, it is obvious what China is up to. Taking such retaliatory countermeasures is costing China heavily not only in economic and political gains but also in the international assessment of its maturity. And yet, strange enough, China dares not ease pressure on Norway because the Chinese Communist Party cannot possibly maintain the one-party rule of China without continuing to suppress freedom and human rights.

　　　On October 14, undaunted by suppression, over 100 Chinese intellectuals supporting Mr. Liu Xiabao issued a communiqué, demanding his release. New values sympathetic to freedom and democracy are spreading consistently across expanding circles of China’s thoughtful intellectuals, and dissatisfaction with the government is constantly growing among the general public.

Barbaric Chinese-Style Imperialism

　　　In Chile, half way across the globe from China, the last of the 33 copper miners trapped in an underground cave-in was rescued on October 14 after spending 69 days 700 meters (2,300 feet) underground. However, about the same time in China, 30 miners were confirmed killed and seven others trapped in a gas explosion that ripped through a coal mine in Henan province. The prospects of the rescue of the trapped miners are far from certain. In China last year, a total of 1,616 coal mine accidents occurred, killing 2,631 miners. It is the general public in China who know better than anyone else that their government makes light of their citizens’ lives.

　　　The Chinese Communist Party must constantly cover up its political failures as well as public grievances. The more serious the problems are that confront the party, the more external adversaries it needs. And Japan is the party’s cherished target — a convenient scapegoat.

　　　The fifth plenary session of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party was being held in Beijing at the height of the anti-Japanese demonstrations. Some observers view the riotous demonstrations as a calculated attempt to unsettle the present establishment ruled by Hu Jintau and Wen Jiabao.

　　　However, it would be risky to readily link the outbreak of anti-Japanese demonstrations with what some quarters see as a “power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party.” Even if a power struggle  actually exists within the party, there appears to be no difference whatsoever between the Hu Jintao faction and the Jiang Zemin faction to the extent that both factions continue to maintain that the Senkaku Islands and the East China Sea belong to China and plot to achieve their common goal of realizing China’s territorial ambition.

　　　As matters are allowed to stand now, the gas field in the East China Sea will most likely be lost to China. But Japan should never lose courage — for its own sake, as well as for the rest of Asia. Japan must by all means thwart China’s archaic imperialism — a relic of the past — by standing firm on its principle of fully protecting its national interests as a sovereign state. That process must begin by squarely grappling with the imminent issues pertaining to the Shirakaba gas field, defending as Japan’s legitimate territory the Japanese portion (exclusive economic zone, that is) of the East China Sea with its huge reservoirs of natural resources. Japan’s able bureaucrats have already submitted to the prime minister’s office an ad hoc report recommending every pertinent step that must be taken to achieve the goal. Now it is up to Messrs. Kan and Sengoku to take action.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column No. 433 in the October 28^th issue of The Weekly Shincho.)