“I happened to have a meal with three gentlemen yesterday. They were all in great spirits and that made me very happy.”

　　　　　So remarked former prime minister Shinzo Abe on December 3 as he appeared on my Friday prime time “Genron” Internet news show. The “three gentlemen” he was referring to were Yoshihide Suga, former chief cabinet secretary who succeeded him as prime minister last September; Koichi Hagyuda, former education minister now serving as Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida; and Katsunobu Kato, former chief cabinet secretary. Abe had this to say about the rumors that his relationship with Suga has turned sour: “I don’t think people understand how deep the bond is that Suga-san and I share as human beings and politicians. I don’t think there is any chance that our relationship will ever turn sour.”

　　　　　Abe explained how grateful he was for Suga’s readiness to take over when protracted ulcerative colitis forced him to resign in late August 2020, noting:

　　　　　“Suga-san did a magnificent job as my successor. For instance, under his massive vaccination program, as many as 1.7 million people were vaccinated a day for COVID-19—which was more than in the US. As my chief cabinet secretary, he sacrificed all comforts and devoted himself wholeheartedly to what his position called for.”

　　　　　These were no doubt welcome words to Suga. Abe recently returned to lead his own party faction after a lapse of nearly a decade. His faction is now the largest within the ruling Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP) and his words have the power to significantly influence domestic and international politics.

　　　　　Take his remarks on issues related to Taiwan, for instance. The possibility of China launching a military attack on the self-governing island, which China regards as a renegade state, is being examined thoroughly from every angle across the globe. Against this backdrop, Abe stated at a virtual seminar sponsored by the Institute for National Policy Research of Taiwan on December 1: “A Taiwan conflict is a Japanese conflict, and therefore a conflict under the US-Japan alliance. People in Beijing, President Xi Jinping in particular, should never have a misunderstanding in recognizing this.”

　　　　　China’s reaction to Abe’s assertions was swift and scathing. Assistant foreign minister Hua Chunying summoned Japanese ambassador Hideo Tatsumi the night of December 1 and complained in a “stern protest” that Abe “had blatantly interfered with Chinese internal politics with remarks that were highly improper.”

“Immune to Criticism”

　　　　　Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin announced: “Anyone who dares to take challenge the bottom line of the Chinese people will inevitably pay serious consequences.” Meanwhile Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of State Council, accused Abe of “swearing black is white.” These reactions amply demonstrated how afraid China is of the stronger support Taiwan is getting from the international community in its resolve to face up to China. Said Abe with a smile:

　　　　　“I am no longer prime minister, just a parliamentarian now, and I consider it a great honor that my statements concerning Taiwan have drawn such attention in China. Having long been subjected to a variety of criticism as head of state, I think I have become quite immune to fault-finding of any kind. I am convinced that, from now on, I must make a clean breast of what I need to say.”

　　　　　Remarkable was a report by The Global Times, a tabloid daily under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party, which contended: “Kishida should have known about Abe’s speech in advance but acquiesced to it, as the Kishida administration cannot shake off Abe’s influence and has to please the US by frequently playing its Taiwan card.”

　　　　　It is indeed sensible to conclude, as the Chinese claim, that Kishida must definitely have been aware of, and agreed with what Abe would say during the webinar. The day before the event, on November 30, Abe called on Kishida at his official residence for a 20-minute conversation, so I view his remarks as reflecting close political teamwork between the incumbent prime minister and his predecessor.

　　　　　Abe explained what prompted him to address the root problem concerning Taiwan.

　　　　　“The international community almost universally recognizes the importance of safeguarding the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait. Meanwhile, a total of 149 Chinese war planes intruded into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) during the first four days of October. Over the past 30 years China has increased its military expenditures roughly 42 times, stepping up its pressure on Taiwan. Should there be a conflict with Taiwan instigated by China attempting to forcibly change the status quo of the Strait, this would undoubtedly directly affect Japan. Look at the Sakishima Islands, which are a chain of Islands (including Yonaguni Island) located only about 100 kilometers (roughly 62 miles) to the east of Taiwan. They would be thrown into “a situation gravely threatening the security of Japan,” as defined in the Japanese legislation for peace and security. This in turn would bring in the US. In other words, a conflict with Taiwan would directly lead to a response from the US and Japan under the terms of our alliance. Specifically pointing this out to the Chinese side will help prevent any accidental military clash.”

　　　　　Abe effectively spoke for a majority in the international community at the symposium. Ordinarily, such a statement would have come from Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi. By instead having Abe take on this role, Japan was able to candidly state its position without directly imposing a strain on the Kishida administration. Abe’s remarks must have brought a sigh of relief to not only the Taiwanese but the people of Japan. The military threat of China is that close to everyone in this region.

　　　　　Abe gave a convincing explanation as regards the developing new crisis of China’s rapidly expanding military power, especially nuclear warheads.

　　　　　Currently, the US army still manages to maintain superiority over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) but China “considerably excels” the US in military power in the Asian “theater,” which includes Japan and Taiwan, because of the US strategy of globally deploying its armed forces. Regarding a comparison of military capabilities between Japan and China, Abe pointed out that China has nearly twice as many surface ships, submarines, and fighters.

　　　　　Even though China has an advantage over Japan in this theater, however, it will not be able to threaten Japan as long as the US maintains overwhelming superiority over China in the global “strategic theater.” Ultimately, it is nuclear weapons that determine which side is superior overall.

Missiles Targeted at Japan

　　　　　The US Congress and Department of Defense have previously revealed China’s vigorous efforts over the years to increase its stockpile of nuclear warheads, warning that by 2030 the number is expected to grow from the current 350 to 1,000. Abe explained the grave danger the expected increase would bring.

　　　　　“The US currently has 5,500 nuclear warheads but is restricted to deploying only 1,550 under the new START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) agreement signed with Russia, which went into effect in February 2011. If China should deploy 1,000 such warheads, the military power balance between the US and China would approach equilibrium. Military experts point out that, if China’s military power should come closer to equal on the global strategic theater and excel America’s in Asia, there’s concern that China might do something daring.”

　　　　　That is to say a marked increase in the stockpile of nuclear warheads has the risk of spurring China to undesirable adventurism. And over time its threat will expand to the realms of cyber, electromagnetic waves, and outer space.

　　　　　What must Japan do under such circumstances? First and foremost, we should strengthen our defense wholesale, and must for that purpose prepare to block the “First Island Chain” operation China wishes to create in the western Pacific against the US-Japan alliance. If the First Island Chain should be brought under Chinese control, US forces would be unable to get to Taiwan or reinforce Japan. All the more reason for the US and Japan to cooperate closely in keeping these islands under control.

　　　　　“In order to defend them,” continued Abe, “deploying medium-range cruise missiles is basically mandatory. But Japan should not depend on the US for those missiles, deploying domestically-manufactured missiles instead. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has the technology to manufacture them.”

　　　　　China has already deployed 2,000 cruise missiles targeted at Japan. Meanwhile, North Korea possesses plenty of missiles with a range of 1,000 kilometers (625 miles), putting much of Japan in danger. South Korea, which had limited the range of its missiles to less than 800 kilometers (500 miles) until May under an agreement with the US, has since lifted those restrictions. That measure has technically put Japan within range of South Korean missiles.

　　　　　The area surrounding Japan now has the world’s highest missile concentration. It makes sense for Japan to deploy Japanese-made missiles in order to defend its homeland on its own. A nation cannot safeguard the welfare of its people without being equipped with sufficient military capabilities. Left-leaning Japanese dailies, such as The Asahi Shimbun, likely will criticize Abe bitterly for his remarks at the webinar. But I have no doubt that Abe’s assertions, based on a realistic scrutiny of the hard geopolitical reality of today’s world, hit the nail on the head and will surely have Kishida’s backing.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 979 in the December 16, 2021 issue of The Weekly Shincho)