The angry Chinese reaction to the South China Sea ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague shows once again how little respect Beijing’s leadership has for international law. If democracies committed to the rule of law fail to take resolute steps against China on this issue, the PCA—and international law itself—will be significantly weakened. The world now is standing at a make or break crossroads where we will either uphold the rule of law or tolerate the rule of force by nations like China and Russia.

　　　　　On July 12, three and a half years after Manila filed a complaint against China on its territorial claims involving the Spratly Islands, the PCA handed down its ruling in favor of the Philippines, stating:

　　　　　–There is no legal basis for China’s claim to historic rights to the territory inside the so-called “nine-dash” line;

　　　　　–There are no islands in the Spratlys as defined under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) ; China cannot claim territorial waters, exclusive economic zones, or territorial air space by merely reclaiming rocks and reefs that are submerged at high tide and constructing buildings on them;

　　　　　–Beijing has violated international law by causing “severe harm to the coral reef environment” through large-scale land reclamation and mobilization of Chinese fishing boats in the seas off the Spratlys;

　　　　　–Chinese ships are unlawfully obstructing Filipino oil drilling and fisheries in the waters off the Spratlys;

　　　　　–China’s continued engagement in extensive land reclamation and construction of artificial islands after the commencement of the arbitration was highly regrettable.

　　　　　The PCA ruling is particularly significant because of its total rejection of China’s claims to territory inside the self-proclaimed “nine-dash” line in the South China Sea. Because the PCA ruling is incontestable under the terms of UNCLOS, it is final. How stunned the Chinese were by the ruling is reflected in their fierce reaction.

　　　　　Chairman Xi Jinping, meeting European Union President Donald Tusk in Beijing on the same day the ruling was issued, was quoted as declaring: “China rejects any assertions or actions based on this legal decision.”

　　　　　Three days after the ruling, on July 15, representatives from 51 nations congregated in Ulaanbaatar, capital of Mongolia, for the 11th annual ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting) summit. During a meeting with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang was quoted by the Kyodo News Service as telling Abe: “Don’t poke your head into unnecessary affairs.” ASEM adopted the chairman’s statement stressing the importance of the rule of law and peaceful resolution of conflicts based under UNCLOS. So strong was the Chinese opposition that Asian and European leaders apparently refrained from specifically mentioning “the South China Sea.”

“International Outlaw”

　　　　　Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the Foreign Ministry, as well as the Communist Party organ People’s Daily and its English edition the Global Times, have all declared in perfect unison their opposition to the PCA ruling. In other words, they themselves have declared China to be an international outlaw.

　　　　　A day after the ruling, China released a white paper on the South China Sea. The Wall Street Journal poked fun at Deputy Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin for escalating invective against the five judges of the PCA tribunal during a press briefing, allegedly describing them as a “prejudiced bunch unfamiliar with the Asian culture who work for the Philippine government.”

　　　　　At an international forum at Tsinghua University in Beijing on July 17, Admiral Sun Jianquo, who serves as Deputy Chief of Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), became the first high-ranking Chinese military official to reveal his view on the PCA ruling when he allegedly noted that the ruling had prompted the PLA to “abandon its illusion (about the South China Sea).” He added that the PLA must improve its capabilities “so that when push comes to shove, the military can play a decisive role in defending our national sovereignty and interests.” (The Asahi, July 18 morning edition)

　　　　　Adm. Sun is the one who said at the Asian Security Conference (also known as the “Shangri-la Dialogue) in Singapore last June 5 that the problems of the South China Sea “had all been fully resolved,” creating a “win-win” situation for all the parties concerned. That obviously was far from the truth.

　　　　　If the free world dares overlook this violation of the UNCLOS in the South China Sea, sooner or later Beijing will trample international law underfoot in the East China Sea as well. We can then also expect to see a similar disregard for international law in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean by Russia’s Putin.

　　　　　To cope with China and safeguard the interests of the international community, a system of joint administration of the South China Sea must be formed. It is time for Japan to lead an effort to implement such a system aimed at securing peaceful waters that are protected by international law and open to any law-abiding nation. Professor Yoshihiko Yamada of Tokai University, who serves as a director for the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals (JINF), a privately-financed Tokyo think tank that I head, is a proponent of the “Asian Maritime Administration Agreement.” It is a framework designed to collect, share, and guard data among democracies in the region on the South China Sea, including the Spratlys.

　　　　　Jointly administering and guarding such data is also expected to contribute to the national interests of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members, as well as Australia and India. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has also hinted at a possibility of European nations taking part in joint patrols of the South China Sea in order to promote freedom of navigation as outlined in the recent land-mark judicial ruling by the PCA. I believe the US and Japan should join hands in leading an international effort to make closer cooperation possible between the coast guards and the armed forces of the nations that would participate in such a system.

　　　　　As Admiral Sun warned in Beijing on July 16, China is determined to cope with any contingency in the seas surrounding it by enhancing its military capabilities. All the more reason for other nations sharing common interests in the South China Sea to establish mutual cooperation in order to enhance deterrence against the Chinese threat.

A Secret Agreement

　　　　　Meanwhile, we must also exercise caution against China’s devious diplomatic and economic schemes. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who succeeded Benigno Aquino last June 30, has been critical of his predecessor’s uncompromising China policy and stated that he would agree to bilateral talks with Beijing.

　　　　　It is important that we understand the background to this debate in the Philippines. In 2004, according to materials available at the private Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ), then-President Gloria Arroyo signed an agreement with China, entitling Chinese corporations to develop 24,000 square kilometers of land and sea around the Spratly Islands. Here and there in the PCIJ’s website, entries harshly criticizing the accord as an “act of treachery” and “treason” can be seen.

　　　　　The Wall Street Journal points out that in 2004, Arroyo also “signed a secret deal that applied Chinese law to Philippine waters.”

　　　　　Tamotsu Fukuda of the Tokyo-based think tank “Japan Institute of International Affairs” notes that the Arroyo administration signed a “Memorandum on Defense Cooperation” with China in November of 2004, explaining that behind this accord were the deterioration of US-Philippines relations and increased Chinese aid program for Manila.

　　　　　One must assume that what happens once can happen twice. China can be more than reasonably expected to reach out to the Philippines this time, offering sizable grants and proposals for various development projects in an effort to pander to Duterte.

　　　　　But China has its own problems. Its national debt now stands at 168 trillion yuan (approximately US$ 25 trillion)—or 2.5 times its GDP—roughly three fifths (US$15 trillion) of which is attributable to losses sustained by state-owned enterprises. A considerable portion of the corporate loans could become non-performing. Some state-owned enterprises are already going into default, and their number could increase drastically.

　　　　　In dealing with China under such circumstances, it is fundamentally essential to come to grips with the fierce nature of her policies. We who represent democratic nations must band together and remain faithful to our principles. In that way, our values will surely lead us to victory.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 714 in the July 28, 2016 issue of The Weekly Shincho)