The stage is set for the G-7 summit slated for May 26-27 at Ise-Shima in Mie Prefecture. One earnestly hopes the summit, the sixth to be hosted by Japan, will stand up to critical scrutiny from a historical perspective. Japan must shoulder a particularly important role at Ise-Shima, where the world’s seven major nations will strive to agree on fundamental principles for the future while at the same time grappling with current complex issues.

　　　　　Most importantly, Japan must move into the forefront of an international effort to establish an economic and security framework sufficient to check China’s adventurism in the international arena. Now is the time for Japan to demonstrate its commitment to a true domestic reform in order to qualify for such an initiative, with America’s increasing tendency to look inward very much in mind.

　　　　　Nations around the world are making genuine efforts to secure their own survival. One example is the reforms Saudi Arabia is undertaking “just short of a revolution.”

　　　　　The world’s largest oil producing nation with a population of 29 million, Saudi Arabia is dependent on oil for an amazing 80% of its revenue. Viewing its abundant crude oil resources as Allah’s blessing, the nation has provided medical care, welfare, and education free of charge without tax. However, things have begun to change drastically since King Salman acceded to the throne in January 2015, appointing his son Mohammed bin Salman as deputy crown prince in April.

　　　　　The deputy crown prince, who is popularly referred to as “MBS,” is committed to changing not only the way the nation is governed but the people’s way of life. He has declared: “We don’t care about oil prices…$30 or $70 (a barrel). It’s all the same. We need to move beyond oil.”

　　　　　The crown prince’s goal is to reduce the country’s poisonous dependence on oil. He will seek to do this by privatizing the entire Saudi economy, including Aramco (the national Saudi Arabian Oil Company), encouraging the people to strive for self-reliance instead of dependence on the government. He will also begin to levy taxes on the people for the first time in Saudi history. As regards religion, he desires a more moderate Islam, willing to recognize the people’s right to enjoy public entertainment in a nation that now even bans the showing of movies.

Failure of America’s Middle East Policy

　　　　　The potential for opposition among Islamic leaders and the 7,000 members of the royal family, who are the greatest beneficiaries of the existing system, cannot be underestimated. After all, Saudi Arabia is the leader of Sunni Muslims who account of some 90% of all the Muslims in the entire Middle East, and the headquarters for the Wahhabi Muslims, known for rigid fundamentalism. It is also said that radical Islamic movements, such as the Islamic State (IS), trace their ideological roots to Saudi Arabia. Understandably, numerous difficulties lie ahead in order to implement dramatic reforms under such circumstances. But the Saudi leadership is daring to take these bold measures in view of the violent changes in the current international situation.

　　　　　The abundance of shale oil production in the US has forced crude oil prices to continue to decline, with the International Monetary Fund predicting that Saudi foreign exchange reserves will likely run out by 2020. Also, as a result of the improvement of the people’s standard of living, all the oil produced in Saudi Arabia will be consumed domestically by 2038, producing no revenue from exports. Here is why the world’s largest oil producing nation is forging ahead with plans to construct 16 nuclear power stations.

　　　　　In addition to its domestic reforms, Saudi Arabia will also be compelled to undergo a major change in its foreign policy. Despite being a US ally, Saudi Arabia is now seeking a closer relationship with Russia. This reflects the nation’s deep disappointment with America’s failed Middle East policy. Particularly strong is Saudi resentment against the nuclear deal the US reached with Iran in July last year. The US went ahead with the accord fully aware that Saudi Arabia’s major national goal is to bring down Iran. The Saudis point out that the controversial accord leaves open the path for Iran’s nuclear weapons development in a decade.

　　　　　Obama’s Middle East policy has been a succession of failures. America managed to withdraw its troops from Iraq by the end of 2011, but starting in June 2014 it was forced to send troops back in to the country to battle IS and other threats. As of April 18 of this year, there were a total of 4,087 American soldiers and officers stationed back in Iraq.

　　　　　Obama will likely retire from office with no prospects of the IS menace being resolved. America’s Middle East policy has virtually reached a dead end.

　　　　　Prior to the Ise-Shima summit, Obama visited Hanoi on March 23, announcing America’s decision to lift a decades-long ban on the export of military equipment to Vietnam. Washington normalized its diplomatic relations with Hanoi in 1995—20 years after the end of the Vietnam War. After a further 21 years, Obama has now evidently decided that his stand on the primacy of human rights around the world can be compromised in the case of Vietnam in order to sell weapons. Obama’s decision reflects America’s desire to have each Asian nation make commensurate efforts for its own security, instead of America alone endeavoring to maintain order in the region.

　　　　　Obviously, the complete lifting of the ban was decided by Obama with China’s growing aggressiveness in the South China Sea in mind.

　　　　　China’s blatant expansionism in the South China Sea continues unabated, with the gap in military capabilities between China and Vietnam remaining vast. The psychological fear of China on the part of the Vietnamese, who had for 1,000 years been subjugated to Chinese rule, is much greater than assumed, and so is their dislike of China. For Vietnam to seek rapprochement with America is the other side of the coin of fear and dislike of China.

　　　　　The Vietnamese have over the centuries sought to devise strategies aimed at strengthening their nation against any Chinese attempt to bring them under Chinese rule. One such recent strategy is its decision to become a founding member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). TPP is expected to threaten Vietnam’s one-party dictatorship, state-run enterprises, vested-interest structure, and the personal gains of those in the inner circle of government, among other things. Despite being fully aware of this, Vietnam is moving ahead with TPP, making desperate efforts to reform itself so as not to be crushed by China.

China Switching Nuclear Strategy

　　　　　Against such a backdrop, China is steadily implementing tougher measures on a number of fronts. It is a well-known fact that, weary of criticism made by the public, the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) is ever more strictly regulating freedom of speech. Suppression of speech is now evident in the business world as well. President Xi Jinping made a tour of China’s top three state-run media outlets—the New China News Agency, the People’s Daily, and China Central Television—earlier this year, reportedly reminding editors and writers to deliver “good news concerning China.” Intervention in the business world by the CPC began last fall just before this blunt intervention in the mass media, making it no longer possible for the Chinese media to deny or question any aspect of China’s economic outlook or middle to long-range economic plans.

　　　　　It is the modus operandi of the Xi Jinping administration to do everything possible in order to solidify its authority at home while making the most of its military power abroad.

　　　　　In its 2013 national defense whitepaper, China deleted a section from the 2011 edition that stated its position was to refrain from a preemptive use of nuclear weapons. There have since been military activities on the part of the PLA attesting to an obvious change of its nuclear strategy. From November to December last year, the PLA Navy’s “Jin”-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) conducted its first strategic patrol mission.

　　　　　Since 1964, China has proclaimed a policy of refraining from the first use of nuclear weapons, claiming as proof that nuclear war-heads and missiles were stored separately. However, during the patrol mission of its SSBN, missiles were allegedly armed with nuclear war-heads. Experts view this as a sign that China has obviously switched its strategy to a readiness to resort to a preemptive use of nuclear weapons.

　　　　　At a time when these and numerous other major changes are taking place across the globe, the world will keenly be watching Japan’s posture at the Ise-Shima summit. Each nation is struggling to cope with the rapidly changing international situation, trying its very best to implement changes and reforms for its own survival—a desperate effort to continue to maintain its dignity, pride, and tradition. Japan, too, must strive to keep up its efforts to change—change not only of its constitution but many of other institutions that are preventing it from acting as a responsible nation in a leadership position.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 706 in the June 2, 2016 issue of The Weekly Shincho)