On May 13, the US Department of Defense (DoD) released its 2016 report to the US Congress on military and security developments involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The report notes that China is aiming at achieving a ‘moderately prosperous society’ by the 100th anniversary of the founding of its Communist Party (CCP) in 2021, and building a ‘modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious’ by the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the PRC in 2049.

　　　　　In reality, however, the Xi Jinping administration (inaugurated on March 15, 2013) has been implementing a fierce suppression of free speech reminiscent of the Mao Zedong era. During the Hu Jintao administration (2003-2013), there were altogether 66 political prisoners. In the three years since Xi came to power, however, 600 political prisoners have already been detained—and tortured. This makes China’s claim to building a harmonious society nothing but an empty promise.

　　　　　The DoD annual report reflected the Pentagon’s strong sense of caution over China’s steady naval buildup. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, China has forged ahead with grandiose military reforms twice. Alarmed by the vast array of high-technology arsenal employed by the US Forces during the First Gulf War, the Jiang Zemin administration (1989-2002) determined to take steps to incorporate high technology into the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 1993.

　　　　　In 2004, the Hu administration embarked on a reform of the PLA to prepare for “informationalized” warfare. The goal is for all its divisions to be deployed more effectively through a sophisticated sharing of communication.

　　　　　The PLA has entered a new stage of evolution following massive structural changes last February. This reform is expected to strengthen the CPC’s grip on the PLA, enhancing its integrated operational capabilities designed to win “short-duration, high-intensity regional conflicts at greater distance from the Chinese mainland.”

　　　　　Among the references to Japan in the report is an analysis pertaining to how China plans to pursue its territorial claim over the Senkaku Islands: “…China still seeks to avoid direct and explicit conflict with the United States” as it pursues greater interests of its own while resigned to causing friction with Japan. In other words, in order to satisfy its territorial claim over the islands, China is dead set on keeping up the pressure on Japan, while being careful not to unnecessarily incite the US.

“Invincible Armed Forces”

　　　　　As regards China’s strategy for enhancing its military capabilities, American experts generally conclude the Chinese have no intention of organizing their armed forces similar to America’s. Professors Toshi Yoshihara and James R. Holmes of the US Naval War College raise an interesting point in their joint work entitled Red Star Over the Pacific (Naval Institute Press; 2010). Eager to secure the mastery of the sea, the Chinese have been studying the evolution of the Imperial Japanese Navy “as a model for PLA Navy development.” Emperor Meiji’s navy, although much smaller than the Russian Navy, defeated its adversary in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905.

　　　　　President Xi Jinping constantly proclaims that the PLA must constitute a force that is “invincible.” Of course, ample warships and other weapons are critical for the success of any navy, but it is the caliber of the fighting men that decisively determines the outcome of a battle.

　　　　　The PLA’s fighting power tends to be underestimated for reasons such as that China “has not fought a major war for 30 years, and the PLA Navy has never fought one.” How, then, does one explain Japan’s triumph over Russia at the turn of the last century, ask the co-authors.

　　　　　Japan, which had not even had a navy of its own until after the Meiji reform of 1868, trounced the much bigger fleet of Ching Dynasty China 27 years later in 1895, and went on to defeat Russia, which maintained a naval fleet many times bigger.

　　　　　The Chinese are now reviewing the history of that era. The “China dream” of rejuvenation that Xi advocates is aimed at regaining the territory that the Ching Dynasty held, which was the most expansive in the history of China.

　　　　　The world should not underestimate the seriousness of the Chinese trying to emulate the strength of the Imperial Japanese Navy that defeated Ching Dynasty China. In addition to achieving supremacy for its armed forces in conventional areas of combat, China is also determined to lead other nations in the race for control of new fields of competition.

　　　　　On November 3, 2015, the CPC announced plans to reinforce the PLA by stepping up its preparedness for any type of military conflict as it acquires new operational capabilities and accelerates reform in the military; safeguarding its maritime interests and becoming a major maritime power; and becoming actively involved in establishing　international rules governing new areas such as the deep sea, the polar region, space, and cyber.

　　　　　The Chinese are obviously acting on the understanding that establishing a competitive environment favorable to Beijing in such areas as the deep sea and space will enhance　their national power in the near future. Remarks Professor Satoshi Tomisaka, a China expert at Tokyo’s Takushoku University:

　　　　　“Once the Chinese show the flag, they will never haul it down. This means they will never give up their claims on Taiwan, the South China Sea, or the East China Sea, not to mention the Senkaku Islands.”

　　　　　China demands that the international community accept in full all of its claims.　Beijing asserts that anything concerning the South China Sea is a domestic matter to be determined by China, not an issue for international adjudication. What Beijing really means is that the international community must accept anything and everything it arbitrarily identifies as China’s core interests.

　　　　　This is an imperialistic approach that can hardly be heeded by the ranks of the free world, including Japan. Despite this, China has been making aggressive efforts to press ahead with its demand, plotting to drive a wedge between ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries on the coast of the South China Sea and the others that are inland, such as Cambodia, Myanmar, and Thailand, which it is eagerly trying to enlist as its supporters. President Benigno Aquino of the Philippines has filed a complaint against China’s conduct in the South China Sea before the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, but China has declared it does not recognize the court’s jurisdiction in this case.

　　　　　There has been some movement towards what might be termed “China encirclement” by certain nations within the international community, but recent unexpected developments could undermine those efforts—namely the emergence of presidential candidates Donald Trump in the US and Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines.

　　　　　Trump claims that, if elected president, he could get along with China. Deterte, the tough-talking mayor of Davao who will replace Aquino as the next president of the Philippines, has remarked that his grandfather was Chinese and that he will work with China for mutual benefit.

　　　　　China’s harshest actions will likely be directed towards Japan, but the results of a recent survey make me seriously wonder if we are ready to deal with this ominous threat.

“America Will Protect Us”

　　　　　The survey, conducted by the AERA weekly magazine (May 16, 2016), asked 700 men and women in Tokyo and ten prefectures: “Do you approve of Japan fighting a war of self-defense, or do you oppose any war—even if it is a war of self-defense?” Female respondents of all ages answered they would oppose it.

　　　　　The next question—“What do you think we should do when foreign nations or armed groups attack Japan?—drew such responses: “I don’t think any country or any armed group will dare attack Japan.”; “Japan should utilize its diplomatic power to avoid being attacked.”; and, “We ourselves should not fight back, and instead expect America to protect us.”

　　　　　Are these respondents resigned to turning a blind eye to the analysis by the US DoD that China is definitely enhancing its threat in Asia with Japan very much in mind? Are they not aware of China’s bellicose and unlawful conduct in the South China Sea? Do they seriously think they can tell Trump—who says the US should no longer protect Japan with American tax money—that we will “expect America to protect us”? Perhaps more importantly, do they think they can say that to the millions of Americans who support Trump?

　　　　　I sadly assume that those who replied that no country or armed group would “dare attack Japan” must be comfortably immersed in the naïve spirit of the preamble of Japan’s “peace” constitution, which says in part that the Japanese trust “in the justice and faith of the peace-loving people of the world…” These people have clearly failed to come to grips with the harsh geopolitical realities now facing Japan. Those who are misled by such thinking will surely be well received by China—just like Trump and Duterte are certain to be.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 705 in the May 26, 2016 issue of The Weekly Shincho)