Taiwan’s opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wei and her party scored a landslide victory in general elections last week. The results will significantly affect the future of the island nation, the whole of Asia including Japan, and ties between Washington and Beijing. Coming vividly into focus once again is a framework in which China is pitted against Japan, the US, and Taiwan.

　　　　　A huge crowd of supporters eager for the DPP’s victory, estimated at anywhere between 30,000 and 40,000, gathered around DPP election headquarters in Taipei the day before the election despite a heavy rainfall, repeatedly chanting “Taiwan, Taiwan, Taiwan!” and “Go for it, DPP!”

　　　　　With the votes counted the following day, Ms. Tsai became president-elect, winning 56% of the votes versus her main Kuomintang (KMT) opponent’s 31%. Her party also gained control of the legislature, winning 68 of the 113 seats, ousting the incumbent KMT. The results can be said to reflect a rejection on the part of native Taiwanese over the China-friendly policies pursued over the last eight years by outgoing President Ma Ying-jeou, a mainlander.

　　　　　Tadae Takubo, a Japanese international affairs expert who visited Taiwan on an 18-member international election observation mission remarked: “Standing before the huge crowd, the victorious Ms. Tsai repeatedly stressed that Taiwan’s national identity lies in its democratic politics, emphasizing ‘Taiwan means democracy; democracy means Taiwan.’ Each time she paused, the crowed rhythmically chanted ‘Go for it!’ and “Taiwan!” three times each. Many of her supporters were shedding tears in those highly emotional moments. Ms. Tsai responded: ‘I’ve done my very best to turn the old tears of disappointment you shed for me before into smiles. If you have some of the tears still left in your eyes, please wipe them away. And let us welcome Taiwan’s new era together!’ I was very touched to feel the jubilation of Taiwanese and see their tears of joy.”

　　　　　Standing in the rain for two straight hours, and sitting through Tsai’s post-election news conference, Takubo, who serves as deputy director of the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals, a Tokyo-based private think tank I head, amply felt the great passion on the part of her supporters for the elections and their great expectations of Tsai’s administration, which will be inaugurated in May.

Avoiding “One China” Debate

　　　　　In considering the identity of Taiwanese, one is bound to reach the conclusion that many of them do not wish to be treated as Chinese. To put it simply, they are Taiwanese, not Chinese. However, the Communist Party of China stands in the way of such thinking. What Beijing is most assuredly wary of are any signs of increased desire for Taiwan’s independence on the part of Ms. Tsai.

　　　　　The KMT government under Ma claims it has confirmed with Beijing the validity of a so-called “1992 Consensus” under which China and Taiwan allegedly agreed that there is only “one China.” Beijing calls that country the “People’s Republic of China” (PRC) while Taipei calls it the “Republic of China” (ROC).

　　　　　On a visit to Taipei last September, I asked former President Lee Teng-hui if such an agreement actually exists. He denied it outright, noting “there would be no agreement that I was unaware of as the President then.”

　　　　　Ms. Tsai herself recognizes that there was a conference held between Taipei and Beijing in 1992, but has not commented on the alleged consensus. If she were to recognize the consensus, she would be automatically construed as admitting that Taiwan is a part of the PRC. In 1999, Mr. Lee as President defined Taiwan-China ties as “a special state-to-state relationship” in an effort to avoid discussing the “one-China” issue which would force Taiwan to be recognized as a part of China no matter how the matter was discussed. What Lee meant at the time was that Taiwan and China do not represent the same country; they are separate nations, Taiwan not being a part of “one China.”

　　　　　Tsai contributed significantly to Lee’s thinking on the nature of the bilateral relationship while serving as a member of the National Security Council—a presidential advisory body. Beijing is highly leery of Tsai precisely because of this background combined with the capabilities she brings to her position. Beijing has already made clear its position that Taiwan’s recognition of “one China” is the precondition for any constructive cross-strait relations in the future. Beijing is expected to exert every possible means of pressure to get her to recognize that there is only one China.

　　　　　It will not be easy to resist pressure from powerful China, but Taiwan’s first female president-elect, who is a lawyer by training, appears to bring an exceptional calmness and command presence to the challenge. Takubo had this to say: “Paying attention to her speech, I could not help but note how she completely maintained her composure while passionately appealing to her audience, who in turn excitedly called her name time and again. She declared that she would certainly become stronger as the president of Taiwan. She pledged she will strive to be a strong leader in grappling with difficulties, as she believes Taiwanese will be able to remain strong if she herself would remain strong as their leader. Her statements convinced me that she is fully aware of the gravity of the tasks lying ahead of her.”

　　　　　During the news conference following immediately her victory, Tsai first made clear her intention to seek closer ties with Japan. Asked about the present state of affairs in the South and East China Seas, she stressed the importance of safeguarding “freedom of navigation” and “honoring the rule of international law,” stating that she will communicate effectively with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as regards these matters. Ms. Tsai’s statement is a message that Taiwan requires Japan’s support when dealing with its much larger neighbor.

Treating Taiwan as Sovereign Nation

　　　　　A sovereign state must have a land it can call its own, indigenous people who reside there, and an administrative organization run by its government. Taiwan meets all these requirements. An international community that will enable Taiwan—effectively an independent sovereign state today—to maintain its current status quo is exactly the world Japan wishes to see for all peoples, based on the principles of democracy and the rule of international law. Helping Taiwan maintain its status quo meets the idealism and national interests not only of Taiwan but also of Japan as well.

　　　　　Takubo attaches special importance to the “democracy” Tsai repeatedly cited in her victory statement, noting:

　　　　　“I don’t believe Ms. Tsai, so cool-headed and rational, would dare discuss Taiwan’s independence indiscreetly. On the other hand, she has repeatedly referred to ‘democracy’ as a noble cause for her country. This means that, in coping with the dictatorship across the strait, she is firmly determined to place Taiwan on a solid foundation of fair, free, and peaceful democracy. We must correctly understand how crucial it is in international politics－and in the broader scope of man’s history—for Taiwan to be in a position to advocate fundamental human principles in facing Mainland China. I am convinced Prime Minister Abe understands this better than anyone else in the world.”

　　　　　Last August 14, Abe released a statement marking the 70th anniversary of the end of the last war, in which he put Taiwan not only on a par with other Asian nations but also ahead of China. Stressed Takubo:

　　　　　“Abe unhesitatingly treated Taiwan as an independent sovereign state in his statement. Putting together the remarks Ms. Tsai made during her post-election speeches and news conferences, one realizes that the directions Japan and Taiwan are taking perfectly correspond with each other. The US will be a party to broad Japan-Taiwan collaboration sooner than later. That would mean a framework under which China is pitted against Japan, Taiwan, and the US is in the offing.”

　　　　　There will be much for Japan and Taiwan to accomplish as they seek closer relations. First and foremost, both will have to strive to strengthen themselves militarily. Over the years, China has been pursuing an unequalled military buildup. Each neighboring country owes it to its people to build up its own self-defense capabilities. Taiwan must make every effort to adopt a national policy aimed at reducing economic dependence on China, while Japan must invite Taiwan to join the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP). In addition, Japan must consciously strive to cultivate human exchanges between Tokyo and Taipei, bearing in mind that our two countries have overlapping national interests.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 689 in the January 28, 2016 issue of The Weekly Shincho)