US-China relations have entered a critical stage, as the world’s two biggest economies clash head-on over Beijing’s aggressive reclamation projects on the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. While China claims sovereignty over the sea as part of the core interests of the new Chinese Empire it aspires to be, the US and Japan and other like-minded countries desire to keep it open and free.

　　　　　The key to Washington’s success lies in whether Obama can take effective measures based on the primary principle of international politics that might is right. Earlier this month Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter requested that naval aircraft and vessels be sent to patrol the waters within 12 nautical miles of the artificial islets in the Spratly Islands that Beijing has built.

　　　　　If Obama approves the dispatch, it will constitute a major deterrence against China. In view of his past policies on China, however, one cannot but be skeptical about whether he will approve such action.

　　　　　On May 16, Secretary of State John Kerry flew to Beijing, conferring with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the same day. At their meeting, Wang allegedly took an aggressive stance while Kerry remained defensive throughout.

　　　　　Kerry reportedly brought up matters relating to the East and South China Seas, along with issues pertaining to North Korea, the Iran nuclear talks, and global climate change. Wang reportedly turned Kerry down flat when the visitor urged China to cooperate with its neighbors in reaching a peaceful settlement of the current dispute in the Spratly Islands.

　　　　　During their joint news conference, there were scenes indicative of the hard exchange of opinions the two allegedly had earlier in their consultations. Wang started out by stressing that the US and China have managed to build a new type of great power relationship, nurturing a strong new bond.

　　　　　Mutual respect of core interests is the main feature of this new type of bilateral relations Beijing has repeatedly been pressing on Washington. According to China, its core interests include Tibet, Uyghur, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. It is Beijing’s desperate desire to talk Washington into accepting a new great power relationship revolving around demands that Washington cannot possibly comply with.

　　　　　Wang then noted that a world order centering on the United Nations must be safeguarded ever more firmly going forward, noting that this year marks the 70th anniversary of the end of the common struggle of the world’s anti-fascist forces. His last comment was an obvious attempt at putting a check on Japan.

Linking Sovereignty with Territory

　　　　　Towards the end of his remarks, Wang again touched on matters relating to Taiwan and Tibet, informing the press that he explained China’s basic stance toward them to Kerry in detail.

　　　　　In Taiwan, the pro-Beijing Nationalist Party has significantly lost public support, creating a situation in which the Democratic Progress Party, which promotes more of an independent platform, could take the reins of the government in next year’s general elections. Any change in the political status of Taiwan could once again rile up China, with many possible　consequences. Already at this early stage, China is seeking to check the US, as it attempts to maintain Taiwan’s status quo.

　　　　　A similar situation will likely ensue in Tibet as well. As His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama gets along in years, China is scheming to place the　Panchen Lama chosen by the Communist Party as the next religious leader of the Tibetans. Strong resistance from the people will be unavoidable.

　　　　　Anticipating these likely developments, Wang in effect was telling the US to keep hands off, emphasizing that these are also matters strictly of China’s core interests.

　　　　　In sharp contrast to Wang, who would make no references to the East and South China Seas, Kerry told reporters that he touched on critical matters relating to these seas and explicitly conveyed to Wang America’s concern about China’s land reclamation efforts, stressing: “We are concerned about the pace and scope of China’s land reclamation in the South China Sea.”

　　　　　In a question-and-answer period that followed, Wang showed a surprisingly strong reaction. When a China Radio International reporter, having first asked Kerry a question, turned to Wang to ask about the China-led Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Silk Road Economic Belt, Wang instead suddenly started talking about the maritime disputes in the region:

　　　　　“I want to reaffirm that China’s determination to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity is as hard as a rock. It is the people’s demand of the government and our legitimate right.”

　　　　　Wang went on speaking without a hitch, stating that China’s claims are based on　international law and historical facts; that, as a signatory to the United Nations Conference on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS), China honors the Law of the Sea; and that how China develops the Spratly Islands “fully falls into the scope of Chinese sovereignty.” So, at the news conference as well, Wang dismissed Kerry’s concerns.

　　　　　The US military is genuinely troubled by the rapidly worsening situation in the South China Sea, acutely sensing the threat from China that is increasing virtually daily. The Department of Defense (DOD) has been taking the lead in sounding the alarm.

　　　　　In an April 7 report to the Congress on China’s military strength, the DOD noted that, as of last December, China had managed to reclaim land on five of the islets in the Spratly Islands for a combined area of 500 acres; that in four of the islets construction of infrastructure has begun following completion of reclamation works; that one of the projects involves construction of an airfield; and that a major berth is under construction that can accommodate large warships, with several waterways being dug.

　　　　　Only a month later, however, DOD called a news conference to reveal that the situation in the Spratly Islands had undergone a significant change from what its report had stated, announcing that the total reclaimed land in the islands has actually expanded to 2,000 acres in the four months since last December.

Diplomacy and Negotiations Aren’t Enough

　　　　　Sea areas deeper than 1,500 meters (5,000 feet) in the South China Sea are considered ideal spots for China to conceal submarines equipped with long-range missiles with nuclear warheads capable of attacking the US. Such areas exist within the vicinity of Fiery Cross Reef, where a runway is under construction. Meanwhile, a heliport is reported to have been completed on the nearby Gaven Reefs.

　　　　　Last November, the bipartisan US-China Economic and Security Review Commission warned that China’s nuclear arsenal is likely to grow and modernize in the next three to five years, weakening “US extended deterrence, particularly with respect to Japan.” This likelihood will be strengthened by China’s reclamation projects in the South China Sea, which are expected to be completed within a year.

　　　　　On March 19, four influential US senators, including John McCain, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, sent a letter to Secretaries Kerry and Carter to sound the alarm over China’s growing military threat in the South China Sea, pointing to the scale and speed of its “aggressive” land reclamation.

　　　　　There is a serious and growing concern in the US Congress and DOD, but obviously not so much on the part of the State Department or the Obama administration. That China dismissed Kerry’s concerns means China is dead set on carrying out its plans no matter what.

　　　　　Diplomacy and negotiations alone are not enough to get China to think twice about its planned actions. That is why Secretary Carter’s instructions to the Navy have important implications for the security of the South China Sea. The US has repeatedly declared that man-made constructions cannot be used to claim sovereignty. In order to stand firm on its principles, the US needs to rigidly implement Carter’s instructions.

　　　　　Should the US stop short of taking action because of a fear of upsetting Beijing, China will be triumphant at that precise moment, forcing both the US and Japan to take a huge step backward. We must realize that we are only a few weak moments away from seeing that happen.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 656 in the May 28, 2015 issue of The Weekly Shincho)