Rapidly expanding its sphere of influence in a wide range of territory encompassing parts of Iraq and Syria, the ultra-radical Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has brought about an ominous change in the Middle East never experienced before by the international community. Tadae Takubo, Deputy Director of the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals (JINF), a private Tokyo think tank I head, describes the new turn of events as “the beginning of a new clash of civilizations.” Appearing on the “Genron” internet TV show on October 3, Takubo observed:

　　　　　“Political scientists define international relations as relationships between states. But what we are faced with now is a terrorist force. They have taken this name of ‘Islamic State,’ but can a terrorist force such as ISIS be categorized as an authentic state? After al‐Qaeda appeared to have been replaced by the more radical ISIS as the region’s dominant terrorist force, a number of new terrorist forces have sprung up like mushrooms after the rain, including Boco Haram of Nigeria and al-Shabaab of Somalia.”

　　　　　Barely a year ago, most of us hardly expected to hear such names. Now, however, they make headlines around the world, dominating news conferences by heads of state and constituting the most prominent subject on the agenda of parliamentary deliberations. One of these forces the western powers are exercising maximum caution against is the Khorasan Group in Syria, made up of seasoned al-Qaeda fighters and viewed as a potential threat equal to—or perhaps greater than—ISIS. Explains Takubo:

　　　　　“On September 18, major American newspapers reported that James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, told an intelligence conference in Washington that the Khorasan Group presents a real and direct threat to the US. The New York Times front-paged Clapper’s remarks.

　　　　　“The Khorasan Group is an armed Islamic organization that regards the US and democratic states in Europe as the immediate enemy of Islam. This organization has experts in explosives manufacturing who have developed the ‘underwear bomb,’ clothes dipped in liquid explosives that can be detonated at any time. This device is said to easily pass through airport security equipped with explosives detectors.”

　　　　　While the Khorasan Group is making plans to attack the US as its special target, one must never fail to realize that the threat of ISIS to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region is increasing literally daily.

“The US Will Lose Interest”

　　　　　ISIS has brutally demonstrated that it will force its extremist purification line—and demand conversion—not only on other ethnic groups with different faiths but on other Muslims as well. It conducts brutal executions if its demands are not met. It was only slightly more than three months ago, on June 29, that the Khorasan Group declared independence, having been ostracized from al-Qaeda, which regarded its basic approach as too extreme. The number of fighters, which was barely 1,500 when ISIS attacked the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, has since ballooned to more than 32,000. How is it possible for the terrorist group, which dared release graphic videos of its savage public executions of American and British journalists, to attract so many backers and sympathizers in such a relatively short span of time? Explains Takubo:

　　　　　“Conservative American commentator Charles Krauthammer interprets brutal executions of foreigners as the magnet that attracts fanatics the world over. More than 2,000 young Muslim Americans, French, German, and Britons, among others, have joined the ISIS forces.

　　　　　“From Asia, some 1,000 youths have come. The British tabloid Daily Mail has reported that 80 young Muslim British women, aged between 18 and 22 and described as ‘child makers for jihadi fighters,’ have moved to ISIS.

　　　　　Islam does not allow women to fight. They are apparently permitted, however, to marry jihadi fighters and bear their sons as fighters of the next generation, or annihilate the enemy by suicide bombing. It is hard to believe that so many young British women have entered ISIS in order to perform such functions.

　　　　　Where then are ISIS and Khorasan headed? Here’s what Takubo has to say:

　　　　　“According to Krauthammer, the terrorists think along this line—that, when provoked, the US at first will become furious and take the offensive. But, after a while it will lose interest because it realizes it cannot annihilate the enemy. The US then gets fed up and says, ‘No more fighting!’ Then a politician will come along who commits himself to withdrawing the forces. That’s how Obama appeared on the scene. The current situation will get the Americans committed to the fighting for now, but watching how the US has behaved in the more than 13 years since 9/11, it will eventually lose interest and withdraw. That’s when the terrorists will be able to claim victory. This is how the terrorists are thinking. Krauthammer is the first man to interpret their thinking in this fashion.”

　　　　　The US and Europe aren’t the only targets for ISIS and the Khorasan Group, as they have also vowed to establish an Islamic state within India and help Chechens regain the southern part of the Chechen Republic from Russia. Meanwhile, China suspects ISIS and Uighurs in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region are cementing their relations. In other words, there already are signs that ISIS forces, notorious for their atrocities, are well poised to shake Russia, China, and India.

Lackadaisical Way of Fighting

　　　　　Isn’t ISIS’s intention to challenge the entire world? It undoubtedly is steadily acquiring greater influence while seeking to oppose—and where possible destroy—all established values. It recognizes no international borders, no international law, and needless to say, no other civilizations or religions. Obviously, something is in the offing that can hardly be understood in terms of conventional international politics. When the Cold War ended with the victory of the West over the East, Professor Samuel Huntington predicted that the world would be divided into eight spheres of civilization—a Christian sphere and an Islamic sphere and so on—with the spheres eventually clashing with each other.

　　　　　What we are witnessing today, however, is a new ideology that opposes all other civilizations on earth. Can what ISIS represents even be called a civilization? Indeed, we must see this war, waged by ISIS—led by Abu Kakr al-Bagdhadi, who claims to have been anointed by Muhammad the Prophet as the Caliph of the self-proclaimed Islamic State—as a blatant challenge to the entire civilized world. Continues Takubo:

　　　　　“Now that we are encountering this new and grotesque ‘civilization,’ I believe we owe it to ourselves to recognize how such a situation has come about. It has long been said that President Bush’s invasion of Iraq was a failure because no weapons of mass destruction were found, although he initiated the military invasion by asserting that Iraq did indeed possess them. However, it has since been revealed that Sadam Hussein had been in contact with terrorists more than 50 times, and that he had once also developed nuclear weapons. Therefore, the US had every reason to invade Iraq at the time. General David Petraeus, Commander of US Central Command in Iraq (2008-2010), managed to develop a democratic system unusual for the Middle East; it was Obama who completely got rid of this system. Obama’s decision to take the wraps off the terrorist forces that were once contained has led to the present chaos there.”

　　　　　Obama has started air-raids against Iraq and Syria, but still refuses to send ground troops. With such a lackadaisical approach, it will be difficult to contain ISIS. Meanwhile, Russia and China are unable to oppose the aerial attacks on ISIS led by the US, as ISIS is a threat to both Russia and China as well.

　　　　　Amid the widening chaos in the Middle East, Japan must observe developments as realistically as possible, and strive to steadfastly improve its self-defense capabilities for its own survival.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 626 in the October 16, 2014 issue of The Weekly Shincho)