In reshuffling his cabinet for the first time since assuming office for the second time in late 2012, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has shown himself to be politically astute and innovative. He named five women as cabinet ministers while promoting former party president Sadakazu Tanigaki to be the party’s secretary-general—an unexpected appointment. Support for his administration jumped 13 points to 64% after the reshuffle　on September 3rd, according to a poll conducted by the mass-circulation Yomiuri Shimbun.
　　　　　The hefty increase in Abe’s support is described by veteran political journalist Kenji Goto as “surprising.” Goto, who has witnessed cabinet reshuffles by various administrations over the past three decades, had this to say on September 5th during an appearance at the Internet “Genron” TV show:
　　　　　“There has never been a single administration which saw a cabinet reshuffle impact its approval rating this directly. The Koizumi administration (2001-2006), which saw its approval rating drop at one time, gained dramatically with a cabinet reshuffle carried out right after his surprise visit to Pyongyang in September 2002. In a face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong-il, the North Korean dictator apologized for the abduction of Japanese citizens over the years. By contrast, the Abe administration really has done nothing that has taken the nation by surprise.”
　　　　　Certainly, the incumbent administration has managed to reach a major cabinet decision on the approval of Japan’s exercising the right to collective self-defense—a historic accomplishment. However, public opinion is divided into two bitterly opposing groups, with the general populace not welcoming the move as much as the Koizumi administration’s efforts to grapple with the abduction issue. Despite this, Abe’s approval rating has improved by more than 10 points. This, I believe, reflects the common sentiment that there is no credible national leader to rely on other than Abe, with all of the opposition parties sadly in disarray. Credit goes to the political intuition of Abe, who has cleverly pumped fresh blood into the cabinet, whose policies—especially security—tend to be misconstrued by women as being too forceful.
　　　　　Abe himself has named his new cabinet “jikko jitsugen naikaku” (“get things done” cabinet). However, will the new cabinet be able to cope effectively with mounting issues relating to: another expected consumption tax increase scheduled for next year; the much-debated question of whether or not to restart the nation’s nuclear power plants, idled since the “Fukushima” disaster in 2011; the North Korean abduction of Japanese citizens; Okinawa’s gubernatorial election slated for November 16th; next year’s national local elections; Japan’s right to collective self-defense; and the friction with China and South Korea? Will the new administration be able to resolve these issues one by one, creating favorable results for the nation?
　　　　　In this vein, Goto made a surprising prediction, indicating that the true intent of Abe vis-a-vis the recent cabinet reshuffle is an early dissolution of the Diet, followed by an early general election, stressing that more attention should be paid to party personnel matters than the cabinet reshuffle.

Fresh Choice of Cabinet Ministers

　　　　　Tanigaki, the new party secretary-general, is a seasoned politician credited with having helped to elect many promising young candidates after the LDP lost power in 2009. That Abe has secured Tanigaki’s cooperation will undoubtedly help solidify his party leadership while securing the support of the 119 new members of his party who put great trust in Tanigaki—their mentor.
　　　　　Tanigaki is a known liberal leader within his party who once opposed the so-called “spy prevention bill” proposed by Abe in the 1980s. However, Tanigaki changed sides in 2013, voting for the Secret Information Protection Act. Known for his loyalty to his party, Tanigaki is expected to more than live up to the prime minister’s expectations this time around.
　　　　　“Abe has skillfully banded younger party members together behind him while neutralizing Tanigaki as a powerful opponent,” noted Gogo. “In that sense, Abe’s party personnel strategy has been very crafty, I must say.”
　　　　　Goto also had this to say about Abe’s appointment of Toshihiro Nikai as the ruling party’s Chairman of the Executive Council, stating:
　　　　　“Nikai is a true-blue political professional who commands control over the Diet, making sure—as Chairman of the Budgetary Committee of the House of Representatives—that all of Abe’s budget requests will be met. With Nikai supporting him, Abe won’t have to miss even a single day of his frequent overseas trips.” While Abe has demonstrated astute political skills in winning the support of both Nikai and Tanigaki, his appointments have been truly innovative.
　　　　　“I must say Abe’s personnel decisions this time were brilliant,” observed Goto, adding: “But at the same time I feel a touch uncertain as to whether the new cabinet, with this lineup of new and inexperienced ministers, will be able to survive the strenuous deliberations expected at various committee sessions as the government strives to enact legislation for security-related bills, including a proposed amendment of the Defense Forces Law.”
　　　　　Goto specifically referred to Defense Minister Akinori Eto, who will be in charge of shepherding Abe’s major defense legislation through the Diet, as a source of concern.
　　　　　After the nationwide local elections next April, the government will commence preparations for development of laws pertaining to the nation’s security, including an amendment of the Defense Forces Law. Naturally, heated deliberations are expected day after day over the wisdom of Japan’s exercise of the right to collective self-defense and other proposed defense initiatives. To get through deliberations of such delicate issues without making a slip of the tongue will not be easy. Abe’s willingness to appoint Eto to his first-ever cabinet post could be seen as a strong sign of support, but Goto instead sees it as the prime minister’s hidden intention to go ahead with a dissolution of the Diet, a subsequent general election, and a further reshuffle of his cabinet.
　　　　　However, Eto’s predecessor Itsunori Onodera performed his duties rather well after what was also generally regarded as a surprising appointment. So, too, did Ms. Tomomi Inada, former Administrative Reform Minister, who was named chairman of the LDP’s policy bureau, and Ms. Sanae Takaichi, Inada’s predecessor, who is now Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications. Why shouldn’t one expect Eto to perform likewise in his new position? I feel that we should be more open-minded about the appointment of these younger politicians who have been made members of the cabinet for the first time.
　　　　　However, Goto said he is also convinced that there will be an early general election because of the projected increase of the consumption tax next year, explaining:
　　　　　“In view of the nation’s fiscal needs, as well as the expectations of the international community, Japan will have to increase the consumption tax from 8 to 10% next fall. And yet, nothing is more frightening politically than a broad tax increase. Many of the 17 prime ministers of the ‘Heisei era,’ which started in 1988, have fallen because of the consumption tax. Prime ministers Noboru Takeshita, Sosuke Uno, Tomiichi Murayama, Ryotaro Hashimoto, and Naoto Kan all bit the dust by running on a platform of a 10% consumption tax increase. In Yoshihiko Noda’s case, his ruling Democratic Party suffered a debilitating loss, their seats reduced from 308 to 57. That is how frightening a tax increase can be.”
　　　　　While the Democratic Party was in power (2009-2013), it announced a decision—following a tripartite agreement reached among the Democratic Party, the LDP, and the Komeito Party—to raise the nation’s consumption tax from 8 to 10% effective October 1, 2015. However, public sentiment toward a new law at the time of passage can be quite different from at the time of its implementation. If the Abe administration takes the plunge and raises the consumption tax in October next year, a drop in its approval rating is quite possible. In December 2016, the terms of office of all the members of the lower house will expire, requiring an election. Goto’s reading is that Abe is at present seriously working on a plan to hold an election much sooner, aware that winning any election is a tough proposition when the winds of popular opinion are against the government.
　　　　　“Democratic Party leaders are also thinking in the same vein,” continued Goto. “There already are some Democrats who have acquired office space in preparation for an election they figure will most likely take place on November 9 this year.”

Cooperation among Opposition Parties Will Vanish into Thin Air

　　　　　The significance of the November 9th election is immense. It will come a week before the scheduled gubernatorial election in Okinawa, in which a victory is vital for the LDP in its campaign to relocate the Futenma Marine Air Base. In pre-election polls, however, incumbent governor Hirokazu Nakaima, backed by the LDP, has apparently been trailing Takeshi Onaga, a former LDP member now backed by a broad coalition of opposition parties. Although a junior partner to the LDP in the ruling coalition, the Komeito Party has been less than positive about cooperating with the LDP over Futenma or supporting Governor Nakaima. It will not be easy for the LDP to find a solution to this dilemma, but the situation should undergo a dramatic change in its favor after the November 19th elections.
　　　　　When it comes to the general election, it will prove to be nearly impossible for the Komeito to team up with the opposition, as each of the opposition parties is inevitably compelled to campaign for its own candidates, making the cooperation among the opposition parties in Okinawa vanish into thin air. In other words, by tearing apart the coalition of the opposition in the general election, the LDP will be able to give Nakaima a chance to win in the Okinawa election.
　　　　　Comments a journalist close to the prime minister:
　　　　　“As a matter of fact, now is the best time to dissolve the Diet. After all, the opposition parties are widely split, while the approval rating for the prime minister is extremely high and the LDP reasonably stable, although there are some party members who are discontented with their positions. Now is the best time to forge ahead with a general election. It will also help the LDP to further unify itself.”
　　　　　Assuming that a general election is held this fall, the LDP appears to have a great chance to score a landslide victory. But it can safely be said that the government party could just as well settle for the status quo in terms of seats. More important than a sweeping victory for the LDP is to secure the next four-year term in office, during which its members can concentrate on efforts to realize their three major goals of reforming education, the constitution, and the Imperial Household Law—all without being bogged down by concerns about the next election.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 622 in the September 18, 2014 issue of The Weekly Shincho)