“One-country pacifism”—a term defining the foreign policy of a nation only interested in its own peace and security—has previously been used predominantly to criticize Japan. Now, this expression may be increasingly directed at the US. Under President Obama, America’s prestige as a super power has declined rapidly, leading to the start of the collapse of the international order known as “Pax Americana.” I believe Japan has the will and ability to turn this crisis into an opportunity.
　　　Pointing out that President Obama twice said “America is not the world’s policeman” in explaining to the American people on September 10th why the US would not attack Syria, Tadae Takubo, a professor at Kyorin University in Tokyo who concurrently serves as Deputy Director of the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals—a Tokyo-headquartered privately financed think tank which I head—observes:
　　　“Obama’s statement undoubtedly is a reflection of America’s determination to not get involved in the strife of other nations. This inward-looking posture is the cause of confusion and unrest in a number of regions across the globe.”
　　　Let us first look at the Middle East. On October 18th, Saudi Arabia—the world’s largest oil producer and a nation which can well be called the leading power of the Middle East—suddenly announced it would renounce its newly acquired seat as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
　　　An even more surprising statement followed four days later to the puzzlement of Middle Eastern nations, the US, and across the international community. Prince Bandar, head of the Integrated Information Agency—Saudi Arabia’s intelligence outfit—invited a European diplomatic delegation to Jeddah on the Red Sea coast to declare that Riyadh would “make a major shift” in its relations with the US.
　　　Bandar, a powerful figure who strongly influences Saudi’s foreign policy, also stated that these series of measures represented “Saudi’s message directed not at the United Nations but the US.” He further warned that Saudi Arabia, which has conducted anti-Assad joint military training with the US, will from now on work closely with nations other than the US, such as France and Jordan (The Wall Street Journal, October 22).
　　　Bandar’s remarks reflected infuriation on the part of Saudi Arabia, which, together with Jordan and Qatar, have supported Syria’s anti-government forces and opposed the Assad regime and strongly urged the US to take military action to topple the administration of President Assad.

Obama’s Ambiguous Posture towards the Middle East

　　　US policy towards Iran has also incensed Saudi Arabia, which views　Teheran’s nuclear program as a serious security threat. Nevertheless, the US has opened a dialogue with Iran, regarding its new president Hassan Rawhani as a moderate. From the Saudi’s viewpoint, there is a great danger that Iran’s nuclear development will go too far before negotiations can stop it. In point of fact, this view is widely shared in the Arab world, as well as by Israel.
　　　Likewise, US policy towards Egypt runs counter to Riyadh’s. Saudi Arabia supports the provisional Egyptian administration established following the military coup d’etat last July, while the US has frozen part of its military aid to Egypt.
　　　As the diplomatic chasm widens between the US and Saudi Arabia, the latter’s irritation has continued to grow over the ambiguous posture on the part of Obama who obviously does not want the US to intervene in the affairs of the region, especially militarily. This is what has driven Prince Bandar to pledge that Saudi Arabia will make a “major shift” in its relations with the US.
　　　The negative effects of Obama’s ambiguous foreign policy have been recognizable in Asia as well. The latest round of TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) talks, held in Bali starting October 1st, were to have moved negotiations towards a final agreement under US leadership. For that, Obama’s presence was crucial, but he failed to show up, as he chose instead to stay home to concentrate on domestic budgetary and financial matters.
　　　China swiftly proceeded to flaunt its presence in the region, as if to fill the gap created by the US absence. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang divided between them visits to all of the important ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) nations, except the Philippines. Xi and Li attended economic cooperation conferences, and held bi-lateral talks with national leaders in rapid succession, resorting to the “divide and rule” tactics for which the Chinese are known.
　　　China has thus adroitly won over the small Southeast Asian nations, succeeding in isolating the Philippines which it has been at loggerheads with over the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
　　　Commenting on the string of consequences resulting from his failure to attend the Bali conference, Obama said he “should have been there,” noting that his absence in effect may have made it easier for the Chinese to assert their views. But he observed: “…I don’t think it’s going to do lasting damage.” Prof. Takubo likened Obama to a boxer who “did not even get in the ring when it came time to fight.”
　　　The New York Times recently reported that Obama seldom states clear-cut opinions during important meetings, absent-mindedly reading messages on his Blackberry smart phone instead—an indication, perhaps, of Obama’s level of interest in foreign affairs. On October 13th, China’s official news agency NCNA
ran a scathing editorial entitled: “US fiscal failure warrants a de-Americanized world.”
　　　Stating that a de-Americanization of the world represents a natural development, the editorial argues: “…the US has gone to all lengths to appear before the world as the one that claims the moral high ground while covertly doing things that are as audacious as torturing prisoners of war, slaying civilians in drone attacks, and spying on world leaders.” The editorial further argues that “under ‘Pax Americana,’ we fail to see a world where the United States is helping to defuse violence and conflicts, reduce poor and disabled populations, and bring about real, lasting peace.”
　　　In addition to the strong objections to the US across Asia and the Middle East, European nations have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the US over the possibility that the US may over the years have targeted even NATO leaders as the objects of its intelligence gathering operations, wiretapping conversations on their cellular phones.
　　　Clearly, the Obama administration has failed in its Asian and Middle Eastern policies, casting a shadow over the trust its allies have in the US.

Increased Role for Japan in Asia

　　　Under such circumstances, Japan can play a truly significant role as a US ally, asserts Prof. Takubo, stressing this is a “ golden opportunity for Japan.”
　　　“Japan will most likely remain a do-nothing nation so long as it
can sit cozily by a US which is too strong,” notes Prof. Takubo. “But now the US has taken a few steps backward. If Japan can positively complement the US where it needs help, I have no doubt that US-Japan relations will be dramatically strengthened.”
　　　The foreign policy based on active pacifism pursued by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is beginning to bear fruit, as evidenced by a string of positive results brought forth since the start of his administration last December. Noting that the Abe administration is post-war Japan’s first “outward-looking” administration, Prof. Takubo observes:
　　　“While the US is taking a low profile in Asia, Abe has actively
been conferring with Asian leaders. For instance, he has had a meeting with President Aquino of the Philippines, promising to provide ten patrol boats to help ramp up regional efforts to monitor China’s maritime activity in disputed waters in the South China Sea. Also during a meeting with Vietnamese Premier Nguyen Tan Dung, an agreement was reached to strengthen the collaboration to safeguard maritime security in the region, with Japan promising a US$500 million loan as a step towards solidifying economic relations between Tokyo and Hanoi. Japan is making its presence known in a number of strategically important areas across Asia. This sort of diplomacy being pursued by Abe is ideal for both Japan and the rest of Asia.”
　　　Meanwhile, a powerful conservative administration has been inaugurated in Australia. Prime Minister John Abbott firmly believes in closer tripartite relations among Australia, Japan, and the US. The birth of this new administration in Australia, which is expected to work closely with the Abe administration, is a welcome following wind emblematic of the times, encouraging Japan to stay its new course with confidence.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 581 in the November 7, 2013 issue of The Weekly Shincho)