The Obama presidency already appears to be in noticeable decline. In the US, which still remains the strongest nation in the world, the administration’s ability to get things done is dwindling at an alarming pace. If this weakening of the Obama administration continues to progress markedly in the face of the rapid rise of China, its negative effects could significantly affect not only the Asia-Pacific region but the entire world. Japan must act adroitly in dealing with this development.

　　　In order to cope effectively with the situation, we must first come to grips with how much of his political clout Obama has lost, and, as a result, how difficult a bind the President finds himself in.

　　　As soon as Obama entered his second term, the world was quickly awakened to the realization that his interests were rapidly turning inward. Not that the President formally modified the US commitment to the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region in any significant manner, but his administration’s growing tendency to commit itself as little as possible to dealing with problems unrelated to US domestic issues became quite conspicuous.

　　　In just the six months since his second term began, the support rate for Obama has dropped to 45% — the lowest for him since assuming the Presidency in January 2009. One survey shows a whopping 83% of the members of both chambers as being opposed to his policies. Naturally, press commentaries regarding Obama have become very harsh.

　　　No longer is it rare nowadays to find a reference to Obama as a “lame duck” President. Against such a backdrop, the administration announced on July 2 that the January 1, 2014 health care reform employer mandate – part of Obama’s biggest political objective in his second term as President – would be postponed by one year.

　　　The health care reform pursued by the Obama administration, popularly called “Obamacare,” invests at least $940 billion over the next decade in establishing a system of public health insurance for the whole nation. Currently, some 50 million citizens out of the total US population of approximately 300 million – or one in six Americans – remain uninsured. The one-year postponement of this significant aspect of the grand scheme is a virtually fatal setback for Obama, who has sought to leave his mark in history through implementation of this new health care system, essentially turning the US into a welfare state.

Dream without A “Legitimate Plan”

　　　On July 27, two Republican governors – Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Scott Walker of Wisconsin – wrote a joint op-ed entitled “Unworkable Obamacare” in the Wall Street Journal. Coming from those who deal directly at the state level with concerned citizens in implementing measures such as medical insurance, the opinions of the two governors are particularly convincing. They asserted:

　　　“…we see that the administration doesn’t have a legitimate plan to successfully implement (the law pertaining to Obamacare).” Brushing aside Obamacare as “unworkable” at the outset and describing it as only a dream devoid of concrete measures, the two governors pointed to several flaws in the administration’s plan.

　　　The governors noted that not everything about it (Obamacare) is uncertain, pointing out that seven million Americans will lose their employer-based health insurance as a result of Obamacare. I find this stunning revelation credible, as the governors cited an analysis released by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office last February. The governors further issued a stern warning as they introduced a letter, dated July 12, which had been sent by three of America’s largest labor unions to the Democratic Party, which read:

　　　“Obamacare would shatter not only hard-earned health benefits, but also destroy the 40-hour workweek that is the backbone of the American middle class.” Since Obamacare defines full-time employment as 30 hours per week, the administration’s stance can add to an increase in layoffs as well as part-time workers.

　　　Meanwhile, Obama gave an impassioned speech on July 24 at Knox College in Illinois, emphasizing that the “winner-take-call economy, where a few do better and better and better, while everybody else just treads water” must change at all costs.

　　　Obama repeatedly referred to his grand objectives of increasing employment by fostering growth industries, enriching the middle class, improving the quality of education, enabling the middle class to buy homes and plan for a secure retirement, and realizing a system of public health insurance for the whole nation.

　　　Obama’s aspirations, which somewhat reminds one of the rosy policies the Democratic Party of Japan failed to implement, were brushed aside by House Speaker John Boehner as “a hollow shell…An Easter egg with no candy in it.”

　　　One might expect the Republican legislative leader to be critical of Obama’s policies. However, even such a staunch supporter of the Democratic Party as the New York Times has found fault with the President, referring to him as a “lame duck” in an April headline, only three months after his second inauguration. It also suggested that Obama “might do better to remember what Jeremy Irons’ pope says on ‘The Borgias’ (a popular TV mini-series): “Do you not see that even the impression of weakness begets weakness?”

Obama’s Hostility towards the Media

　　　Let us for a moment review some other problems that the President is faced with. Firstly, there is the “IRS” incident, in which the administration was charged with having Internal Revenue Service agents apply special scrutiny to tax-exemption applications from conservative groups, including the Tea Party, which supported Republican members of the Congress.

　　　Secondly, there was an incident involving an Associated Press reporter, whose telephone was bugged by the Central Intelligence Agency after the journalist reported that the agency had preemptively prevented a Yemeni terrorist organization affiliated with al-Qaeda from blowing up a passenger aircraft.

　　　President Obama apparently has strong hostility towards the media. While there reportedly were only three cases in which the US government brought legal action against news sources prior to January 2009, the number rose to six in his first term as President. (The Asahi Shimbun, July 29, 2013)

　　　Obviously, it was the Snowden incident that deepened the impression that Obama trusts neither the mass media nor the people.

　　　Each of these incidents is far removed from the generally perceived image of Obama as President. Wasn’t he thought to be genuinely committed to honoring human rights, freedom of information, and transparency in the decision-making process? A totally unexpected turn of events confront those people who once firmly believed in him. That explains why his approval rate has dropped to 45%.

　　　Called a lame duck President increasingly nowadays, Obama’s ability to resolve critical domestic as well as international issues has apparently deteriorated markedly. Because foreign policy inevitably follows as an extension of domestic politics, it will not be an easy task for the Obama administration to exercise power effectively in the international community. In Japan, there are people who are opposed to the US-Japan Security Treaty and a revision of the constitution, pointing out the danger of Japan getting involved in America’s wars. But now it is the people in the US who say their nation should not be involved in conflicts abroad.

　　　That is all the more reason for Japan and Southeast Asian nations, saddled with problems pertaining to the East and South China Seas, to grapple squarely with this change in the US posture towards the Asia-Pacific and strive to work out countermeasures as soon as possible.

　　　What Washington is looking for is full-fledged cooperation from Japan, which shares the same values as the US. It will suit the national interests of both the US and Japan for us to contribute to helping lessen US burdens while safeguarding democracy and the existing order in the Asia-Pacific region based on international law. To make such a contribution possible, it is desirable that Japan become a strong nation that honors morality in every sense of the word. That, I stress, is the reason why a resurgence of Japan through measures such as a revision of the constitution is urgently needed.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 569 in the August 8, 2013 issue of The Weekly Shincho)