A new set of regulations, worked out by the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) featuring stringent safety standards aimed at securing safe operations of nuclear power plants across Japan, will take effect on July 8.
　　　　　The new standards call for high tidal embankments, a vent system equipped with filters to reduce levels of radioactive exhaust in case of an accident, surveys to determine if active fault lines exist within the premises of nuclear power stations, and limiting the duration of a nuclear power plant’s operation to 40 years. However, these new standards, along with the inspection process as will be explained later, are so strict that all of the existing nuclear power plants in Japan may be shut down by the 2030s, making Japan a nation without nuclear power generation.
　　　　　Why must Japan, said to possess some of the world’s most advanced nuclear power technology, face this situation? It is an “unwelcome parting gift” from Naoto Kan, the former prime minister, points out Professor Tadashi Narabayashi of the Graduate School of Engineering at Hokkaido University, one of the nation’s top experts on nuclear and environmental studies.
　　　　　While the incumbent Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and its long-time coalition partner, the Komeito, scored a sweeping victory in a recent election of the Tokyo Municipal Assembly by securing 82 out of 127 seats, the top opposition party – the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) – suffered a crushing defeat, as its seats decreased by 65%, dropping from 43 to 15. All of the two party’s candidates got elected.
　　　　　It was a devastating defeat for both Naoto Kan and Banri Kaieda, the opposition party’s former and current heads, who failed to get most of their party’s candidates elected even in their own backward of Tokyo.
　　　　　Kan, whom most voters blatantly turned their backs on, had campaigned vigorously on a “zero nuclear power” platform. Despite winning a landslide victory by refuting the former prime minister’s nuclear policy as unrealistic, members of Prime Minister Abe’s party are now facing the prospect of Japan gradually becoming a nation with no active nuclear power plants. Kan claims the DPJ has methodically contrived to bring this about.
　　　　　Kan made the following remarks to the Hokkaido Shimbun on April 30:
　　　　　“When the proprietors of electric utilities begin to see the end of the era of nuclear power generation, they will inevitably become increasingly hesitant to commit themselves to investing on their plants on a long-term basis. If the present condition lasts any longer, in which only two out of a total of 54 nuclear reactors in Japan remain active, I feel the industry will be compelled to give up nuclear power generation altogether. I believe the next two to three years will be crucial in determining what will happen to Japan’s nuclear power generation.”
　　　　　Kan’s observations appear to have hit the nail on the head. Machinery manufacturers in the nuclear power generation business have remained unprofitable since the disaster in Fukushima in March 2011, while utilities across the nation are deeply in the red. With on-the-spot inspections of plant facilities by the NRA tending to stall under the circumstances, small local businesses that have been heavily dependent on the utilities are on the verge of bankruptcy now, subcontracting jobs having drastically been decreased.

“Worst Possible Situation” in Progress

　　　　　Warns Prof. Narabayashi: “Safety of operations at nuclear power plants is supported by small local businesses. If they are to be bogged down and decide to withdraw from power plants, the high standard of technology Japan has maintained to safeguard reliable nuclear power generation certainly cannot be sustained, seriously affecting the safety of the nuclear power stations that currently remain inactive. We must recognize the fact that we are facing the worst possible situation at this juncture.”
　　　　　The number of students majoring in subjects related to nuclear power is on a conspicuous decline at colleges and universities across Japan. While Hokkaido University has barely managed to retain the same number of students as the previous year, notes Prof. Narabayashi, graduate schools of leading universities known for advanced nuclear power studies, such as Kyoto University and the Tokyo Institute of Technology, are suffering from a marked decrease of students.
　　　　　Kan also had this to say on Abe’s decision to disregard his “zero nuclear” appeal:
　　　　　“I’m afraid Mr. Abe is dreaming if he is expecting to see a smooth and steady reopening of the idled plants. It will be unrealistic to expect to see even a small number of those plants, say 10 to 20, reopened anytime soon. The DPJ has left behind a system making an easy resumption of operations impossible. Emblematic of that was our establishment of the NRA after scrapping the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency.”
　　　　　Kan further remarked:
　　　　　“The NRA has pointed to the existence of active fault lines in a number of power stations, including the Tsuruga Nuclear Power Station in Fukui Prefecture. The operation of the O-i Nuclear Power Station, also in Fukui Prefecture, may also be suspended. Now that the LDP has agreed to the NRA’s establishment as an independent entity, they just cannot pretend that the body doesn’t exist”
　　　　　The NRA was inaugurated last September, equipped with strong authority, entitled to personnel and budgetary decisions independent of the cabinet office (under Article 3 of the National Government Organization Act). It took over nuclear regulatory responsibilities from its predecessor ― the Natural Resources and Energy Agency of the Economy of the Trade and Industry Ministry, which had promoted nuclear energy and failed to implement effective measures mandatory to safe operations.
　　　　　A thorough review of safety standards the NRA is entrusted with is a truly critical matter affecting Japan’s overall energy policy. Therefore, in view of the extent of the agency’s authority, its five members, including the chairman, must theoretically be made up of truly qualified experts with the best of common sense as well. However, one must seriously ask if their selection was done properly. Has the DPJ selected the right individuals for the job?
　　　　　The five members were nominated by then prime minister Yoshihiko Noda without formal approval by the Diet under an exceptive arrangement. After the Abe administration took over last December, however, major parties such as the LDP, the Komeito, and the DPJ approved the nominations without thoroughly deliberating the matter. This has allowed Kan to say that the LDP cannot now claim they had nothing to do with the approval process.
　　　　　The essence of the new safety standards, introduced earlier in this column, strikes one as proof that Kan correctly predicted the turn of events. Points out Prof. Narabayashi:
　　　　　“Let’s take the safety inspection (of nuclear facilities) needed to secure safe operations, for example. Due to a shortage of staff, the new regulatory body is said to be able to conduct on-the-spot inspections of only three nuclear reactors at a time. And Chairman (Shunichi) Tanaka has remarked that at least six months to a year would be required to conduct a thorough check of a reactor. This would mean that in the worst case over the next year or two, only three reactors might be reactivated. And then, after the check of the first three is over, the commission would start inspecting three additional reactors, which would require yet another year or two. If that is the case, there’s no way the government will be able to approve the reactivation of 10 to 20 nuclear power plants anytime in the near future. I am afraid that Mr. Kan’s contention is correct.”

“Extremely Stringent Conditions”

　　　　　Apparently, a deep and tenacious attachment to Kan’s “zero nuclear power” scheme has been adroitly incorporated into the NRA’s new safety standards. The 40-year limit means that the operating license for some nuclear reactors may expire before the necessary inspections are completed. The NRA has set the limit at 40 years, possibly with “a rare, one-time-only exception” in which a 20-year extension will be permitted, but as Chairman Tanaka was quoted as saing in a January 11 interview with the Asahi Shimbun:
　　　　　“While we certainly will not be turning away any proprietor at the door, I can assure you that they will find the new safety standards extremely stringent.”
　　　　　By the “extremely stringent” standards, the head of the regulatory body clearly is not talking only about the tough new standards. In point of fact, a look at the application procedure convinces me that an extension of a plant’s operations beyond 40 years would be next to impossible. This is because the new regulations require an application for extension be made only 15 months before the end of the plant’s 40-year operations – no sooner.
　　　　　Application forms with the slightest defects will be pushed back; it will be the end of the game for the proprietor if and when, with the end of operations only less than 15 months away, the agency points out the need for reconstruction of facilities. Any small construction or repair work at a nuclear power station is known to be extremely time-consuming – usually at least one to two years. Experts say meeting the NRA’s stringent conditions within such a short a span of time is virtually impossible, noting that its US counterpart – the Nuclear Regulatory Commission – makes it a rule to accept extension applications ten years before the scheduled end of a plant’s operation. Against such a backdrop, one is inclined to regard Tanaka’s statement as a declaration that the NRA will not approve of any extension of operations of nuclear plants beyond 40 years.
　　　　　Everybody in Japan is acutely aware that nuclear power stations must prioritize safety. If, however, Japanese nuclear power plants must follow the rules and procedures the regulatory body demands, it is quite possible that Japan will be forced to become a nation without any nuclear power plants. Has the process that has brought us to this point been legitimate and scientifically objective? Can Japan really generate enough electricity without nuclear power? I have serious doubts.
　　　　　If indeed the NRA, protected by its strong position as an independent commission, is imposing unscientific and unduly stringent safety rules and regulations, then I believe it is necessary that we conduct a thorough investigation of its activities. The issue is too important for the future of our country to do otherwise.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 564 in the July 4, 2013 issue of The Weekly Shincho)