The first US-Japan summit in Washington for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe after assuming his second premiership last December must be judged a success, eradicating initial Japanese anxiety surrounding his February 21-22 visit – at least for the time being.

　　　Abe told President Obama that he believes “a stronger United States leads to a stronger Japan, and a stronger Japan leads to a stronger United States.” Because Japanese prime ministers had in recent years persistently refrained from referring to Japan as a strong nation, these remarks by Abe to Obama sounded surprisingly refreshing. In point of fact, whenever problems involving the disputed Senkaku Islands have cropped up, such as recent violations of Japanese territorial air space and waters by the Chinese, Tokyo has always assumed a helplessly dependent posture towards Washington, wondering if the US would really protect Japan under the terms of the US-Japan Security Treaty, if push came to shove.

　　　But in this case Abe acted resolutely, taking the position coming into the summit that Japan is the primary defender of its own territorial air space, land, and seas.

　　　In turn, Obama told Abe: “You can rest assured that you will have a strong partner in the US throughout your tenure.” As regards the Senkakus, Secretary of State John Kerry told Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida he wanted to “compliment Japan on the restraint it has shown” in responding to Chinese provocations, reaffirming the US’s “unwavering position” that the disputed islands fall under the scope of the US-Japan Security Treaty.

　　　I would think it is safe to say that at long last Japan and the U.S. have regained the defense relationship that they should have, with Japan openly declaring its resolve to do its best to defend itself and the US clearly expressing its readiness to fulfill its responsibility as a trusted ally.

　　　During an address at the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) following his session with Obama, Abe told the audience he believed a strong Japan leads “not only to the promotion of our respective national interest, but also to a lot of things that we can do together in areas like the Middle East or Africa or at the United Nations.” I would think that these remarks by Abe were naturally expected of a Japanese leader – words that I believe the international community had long been expecting to hear from a Japanese prime minister. Abe’s visit was given due credit in the US in that he succeeded in communicating a clear-cut commitment to realizing a rebirth of the national power of Japan.

　　　Broadly speaking, the two governments managed to reach agreement on several vital issues, such as:

　　　(1)  Japanese participation in the Transpacific Partnership (TPP)
　　　　　　free trade negotiations;

　　　(2)  Cooperation to get the United Nations Security Council to
　　　　　　adopt further sanctions against North Korea;

　　　(3)  The need to strengthen missile defense cooperation;

　　　(4)  The need for an early transfer of the Futenma US Marine Air
　　　　　　Station in Okinawa;

　　　(5)  Japanese restraint as it deals with Chinese provocations aimed
　　　　　　at the disputed Senkaku Islands;

　　　(6)  Japanese nuclear power generation as a means of stabilizing
　　　　　　energy supply; and,

　　　(7)  Consideration of American export of shale gas to Japan.

Framework for a Bold Grand Strategy

　　　While Japan’s participation in the on-going TPP negotiations is an especially important issue, particularly difficult will be to figure out how Japan should deal with the “inward-lookingness” of the second Obama administration, which both the US and Japanese sides obviously chose to not take up openly last month.

　　　That its participation in the TPP negotiations has finally become decisive, I believe, means Japan can rightfully become one of the important rule-makers of the Asia-Pacific region by further helping accelerate a drastic change in the framework of international politics sweeping across the region. Although deep-rooted opposition to the TPP continues to exist in Japan, there is no question it will constitute the foundation of increased prosperity for the US and Japan, as well as other Asia-Pacific nations.

　　　The TPP is not simply a new economic zone but a framework for a bold grand strategy defining how the 21^st century Asia-Pacific region will function in all its aspects. To come to grips with the extreme importance of the projected free trade agreement, one should simply recall how nervous China has been about the TPP.

　　　In October of 2011, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries compiled a transcription of a dialogue concerning the TPP between Yoshihiko Noda and Motohisa Furukawa, who respectively were prime minister and state minister of national strategy, along with an intelligence analysis of the dialogue. But these documents pertaining to Japan’s foreign policy strategy were targeted soon afterwards in a suspected cyber-attack on the ministry, together with other documents whose content also constituted state secrets.

　　　This leakage of classified information did not come to light until around January 2012. Although the Japanese government suppressed the fact about the leak at the time, the authorities admitted that there was a good possibility that China manipulated the cyber-attack. In the documents that were targeted, Noda and Furukawa actually discussed the possibility that Japan would announce its decision to participate in TPP negotiations during the APEC convention scheduled for November of 2011 in Hawaii, as well as plans to cope with intra-party opposition within the then ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).

　　　No sooner had the DPJ government worked out a plan to announce TPP participation in November of 2011 – as the hacked record of Noda’s conversation with Furukawa shows – than China urged Japan to enter negotiations on a tripartite free trade agreement that would also involve South Korea.

　　　I believe it is reasonable to conclude that China, which had previously been least positive about the tripartite agreement, decided to do such a fast about-face because it had obtained credible intelligence pertaining to Japan’s posture towards the TPP.

　　　China has been excessively concerned about the TPP because Beijing anticipates the free trade framework to grow beyond just an ordinary economic partnership, eventually developing into a powerful regional bloc – an alliance of nations like the European Union (EU) bringing its members together with a variety of bonds. The TPP is envisaged as a bloc of Pacific nations with the US functioning as the main pillar, although its doors are open to China. Meanwhile, what China wants to create is an economic bloc centering around China and devoid of the US. There clearly would be no future in a China-centered bloc for Japan. But the merits of separating the US and Japan would be immense for China. That is why China was maneuvering to drag Japan into a free trade agreement excluding the US.

Inward-Looking US Foreign Policy

　　　Clearly, it is unrealistic and absurd for Japan to opt to join the agreement which Beijing envisions. Abe has a tough job ahead as he tries to work out the differences within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) towards an ultimate participation in the TPP. I would consider it advisable for him to talk it over – as often and candidly as possible – with those who are emotionally opposed to the TPP. In that process, I expect the prime minister to be able to demonstrate how groundless the concerns are that are entertained by the opposition. On top of that, Mr. Abe ought to be able to show concrete measures to nurture Japanese agriculture as a strongly competitive industry which it has so far failed to be. Viewed with a calm eye, there actually are an amazing number of success stories involving agriculture in Japan.

　　　A more serious problem for Japan is what I regard as the extremely inward-looking foreign policy of the second Obama administration. On February 20, John Kerry delivered his first foreign policy address since becoming secretary of state at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, VA. He first asked, “Why am I here…a secretary of state making his first speech in the United States?” and then answered his own question as follows:

　　　“How we conduct our foreign policy matters more than ever before to our everyday lives…”

　　　Describing the US budgetary problem as the biggest obstacle US foreign policy faces, Kerry said, “In fact, our whole foreign policy budget is just over one percent of our national budget,” comparing it with the Pentagon’s budget which accounts for nearly 20 percent. He went on to declare that international problems can more effectively be resolved by sending diplomats than soldiers, indicating his intent to favor cutting the defense budget.

　　　Obviously, the secretary was hinting to his audience that the US is faced with critical choices today in terms of how much of its national budget for domestic programs should be sacrificed to accommodate its involvement in the international community.

　　　Meanwhile, in his State of the Union message, President Obama failed to say much about North Korea’s nuclear program beyond warning that the US will strengthen its missile defense. Not a word was spoken about US readiness to aggressively check Pyongyang’s possession of nuclear weapons.

　　　Regrettably, the US administration appears to be turning completely inward-looking. We must be prepared to accept the fact that it will be unrealistic to continue to count much on the Obama administration in terms of the North’s nuclear program or the Senkaku dispute.

　　　The only way for Japan to cope with this situation in the face of the rapidly growing threat from China, I believe, will be to continue to strive to become a strong and independent nation with true mettle that the US cannot afford to make light of as an ally. This is the biggest challenge for Prime Minister Abe.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 548 in the March 7, 2013 issue of The Weekly Shincho)