Former enemies Vietnam and the United States are both going to great lengths to find the right balanced approach in dealing with the common threat of China. This was the predominant impression I got on my recent visit to Hanoi as head of a delegation from the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals (JINF), a Tokyo-headquartered private think tank that I head. We were in the Vietnamese capital to exchange views with members of major organizations such as the Institute for Foreign Policy and Strategic Studies (IFPSS) and the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences. China was the focal point of our discussions.

　　　China is at the center of many of the problems affecting the world today. The democratization movement, begun in the Middle East in late 2010, has toppled the protracted dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, but is currently stalling in Syria. Although surveys by the United Nations hold President Assad responsible for having mobilized the armed forces and caused the deaths of more than 10,000 dissidents, he has managed to escape UN sanctions all this while -€ thanks to two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, China and Russia, wielding their veto power. Likewise, Iran, which aims to develop nuclear weapons, has been shielded by China and Russia.

　　　In the many territorial disputes ongoing in the South China and East China seas, China is also the root cause of the problems, insisting on ignoring international law and historical circumstances while leaving no room for the legitimacy of the claims of others.

　　　That is why China today is the biggest headache for the international community. With a one-party dictatorship and a huge domestic market which continues to grow, China has forged ahead with an abnormal military buildup based on its enormous economic power, confronting its neighbors with outrageous demands. And yet no nation can afford to ignore China’s economic power, all being compelled to maintain some form of relationship. Never before has the world faced with a nation with this much economic power combined with military muscle and the rule of a merciless one-party dictatorship.

　　　Granted Vietnam is a war-hardened nation, having fought many wars of resistance against China over the centuries, but even at that the nation must be feeling the impact of China’s pressure and threat far more acutely than Japan or the member nations of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Vietnam’s history is marked by some 1,000 years of subjugation to China. Even now, it faces China across some 800 miles of border, and China continues to remain the lopsidedly dominant figure in their bilateral relationship. No wonder Vietnam maintains an extremely prudent diplomatic policy towards her overpowering neighbor.

Diplomatic Negotiations and Real Solutions

　　　Let us take a moment here to compare the economic and military power of the two nations. (1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP): In 2011, China’s GDP stood at some US$91.5 billion, while Vietnam’s was more than 50 times smaller, at a mere US$1.9 billion. (2) Defense Budget: While China’s defense budget was believed to have surpassed the US$100 billion mark, Vietnam’s was a meager US$2.7 billion. (3) Troop Strength: 2,280,000 for China vs 480,000 for Vietnam. (4) Main Naval Fleet: 149 battleships for China vs 14 for Vietnam. (5) Submarines: 71 for China vs 2 for Vietnam.

　　　Facing Hanoi directly across Tonkin Bay is China’s Hainan Island, site of the massive naval installation of Yulin Naval Base, which matches in strategic importance Qingdao Naval Base -€ home to the Chinese North Sea Fleet. Should China succeed in strengthening the defenses of Yulin, as well as the capabilities of its nuclear submarines, China is expected to secure second strike capabilities against US nuclear attacks. In the event that China succeeds, it will have finally achieved the minimum required capability with which to fight the US on equal footing -€ at least in theory. For this specific purpose, China is said to desire control of the South China Sea, which is deep enough to conceal submarines loaded with long-range ballistic missiles equipped with nuclear warheads. Neither the East China Sea nor the Yellow Sea has the required depth.

　　　How should nations deal with China, which never ceases to claim more than 80% of the South China Sea as its own, making no secret of its hegemonic ambitions? Nguyen Hung Son, Deputy Secretary-General of the Center for Strategic Studies attached to the IFPSS, reasoned that an effective strategy towards China, as far as Vietnam is concerned, revolves around two relevant elements -€ tough diplomatic negotiations and pragmatic solutions. As regards the defense of the South China Sea, he stresses the importance of calling for China to honor the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of the Seas, which determined the 200-mile “Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ)” for coastal nations, as well as the 2002 “Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea” -€ an agreement reached between China and ASEAN aimed at peacefully resolving any disputes involving the South China Sea.

　　　Nguyen maintained that Vietnam is determined to defend its legitimate territory in the South China Sea by strengthening its navy and making fully clear to all Vietnamese citizens that they should be absolutely determined to take part in a “people’s war” should it become necessary.

　　　Vietnam’s posture towards the defense of its portion of the South China Sea -€ putting pacifism and omnidirectional diplomacy first and foremost -€ was reiterated when officials explained how Vietnam decided to open Camranh Bay to the navies of the world in 2010. Asked if Vietnam expects the US Navy to play a central role in safeguarding the security of the South China Sea now that US navy ships have entered the port at Camranh Bay, Dr. Hoang Anh Tuan, IFPSS Director General, had this to say:

　　　“There actually is nothing special about our cooperation with the US Navy. I believe the entry by US battleships into Camranh Bay attracted special attention worldwide because the Vietnam War is still fresh in the memory of many people, and also because the recent disputes over the South China Sea have come to the fore. Allow me to remind you that warships from China, India, Australia, and Canada, as well as Japan, have also made port calls at Camranh Bay.”

　　　That American battleships have in fact made port calls certainly is not insignificant. And yet, the Vietnamese side continues to repeat official explanations such as those made by Dr. Hoang. Clearly, it is Vietnam’s strategy not to reveal to China a posture which can be interpreted as confrontational.

　　　As it prepares to adroitly face up to the South China Sea disputes, which show every sign of protraction, Vietnam is obviously determined to deal pragmatically with the dangers before its very eyes while at the same time making maximum efforts to avoid friction with China. This is what Vietnam’s “people’s war” is all about. Son had this to add:

Japan Would Benefit from Emulating Vietnam

　　　“The Spratly Islands comprise a total of 21 islands that legitimately belong to Vietnam. As the first step towards defending these islands, we dispatched troops and had them live there. Now we are encouraging average citizens to migrate to any of these islands. We’ve already erected Buddhist temples and sent six priests. We are also building clinics and schools so people can decide to get settled there. These steps represent our scheme to have all of our citizens play their parts in defending our territory. As expected, the Chinese have voiced strong dissatisfaction, but apparently find it difficult to meddle with us in view of the effective control we have established in these islands.”

　　　Ridden by an obsessive fear of China, the Japanese government has for too long shied away from keeping the people of Japan properly informed of the situation involving the Senkaku Islands. It is time to emulate the tenacity with which Vietnam has steadfastly refused to compromise its principles regarding territorial rights vis-a-vis China.

　　　Commented a Vietnamese government source:

　　　“Unless pursued subtly and thoughtfully, our diplomacy towards China would not have been -€ or would not be -€ sustainable. By the same token, I would think the US diplomacy with Vietnam would most likely not bear much fruit unless the US comes to grips with this point.”

　　　For both Japan and the US, successful diplomacy towards Vietnam will be to contribute effectively to help the eager Southeast Asian nation to become more affluent, more powerful, and more self-reliant.

　　　One realistic step towards such a goal will be Vietnam’s projected participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), a free trade scheme embracing the possibility of dramatically transforming the nation’s economy. Vietnam’s historically corrupt domestic infrastructure bringing undue benefits to state-owned corporations, the Communist Party, and only a limited number of individuals will inevitably be sorted out considerably when “external” pressure builds up under the TPP. Because Vietnam dared choose to join the free trade agreement fully understanding how it will impact its economy, I believe there is a great possibility it will be able to elevate its economy to a new stage of development and revitalization, achieving affluence and becoming a more powerful country overall.

　　　Following Vietnam’s announcement of its TPP participation in March 2009, China has seized every opportunity to exert pressure on Vietnam, bitterly opposing its participation as a gesture of seeking closer ties with the US. Under such circumstances, Vietnam now badly needs, and is seeking, assistance and cooperation from Japan far more eagerly than from any other nation. In the past, the aid Japan extended to Vietnam was limited to surface infrastructure mostly centering around highways. But Vietnamese officials say they are eager to seek Japan’s future cooperation in such areas as the protection and development of oceanic resources. Now is the time for Japan to speak up without hesitation against China while offering Vietnam maximum support as it earnestly strives to defend its own land and seas against the Chinese threat.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 511 in the May 31, 2012 issue of The Weekly Shincho)