Suu Kyi’s Election Victory Could Lead to Weakened Chinese Influence over Asia
Myanmar’s National League for Democracy (NLD), a small but determined opposition party led by veteran dissident and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, scored a land-slide victory in a bi-election held on April 1.
In the election aimed at filling just 45 vacant legislative seats in a 664-member bicameral national assembly, the NLD won all of the 44 seats it contested. Its feat is not expected to significantly change the political landscape of Myanmar in the short term; the party accounts for far less than 10 percent of the national assembly, in which a quarter of the seats have been allocated to the military. Those with military background, including members of the military-backed incumbent Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), represent some 80 percent of all of the parliamentarians.
In her victory speech, Suu Kyi said members of the NLD and their supporters “are filled with great joy over the results,” but cautioned them to avoid “words, behavior, or actions that could harm or upset other parties and people.” She also said it was “necessary for all NLD members to ensure that the victory of the people is a dignified victory.”
Suu Kyi’s prudent remarks obviously reflected her strong desire to see democratization of Myanmar accelerated steadily, while discreetly taking into consideration possible moves by the incumbent administration which effectively is a regime run by former military officers. If its democratization efforts steadily bear fruit, Myanmar could fundamentally change the political dynamism in Asia, above all compelling China - which is seeking hegemony over the region - to alter its basic strategy. After all, Myanmar is second only to Indonesia among ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries in the size of its territory.
The significance of Myanmar’s democratization will become all the more evident when one comes to grips with the nation’s traditional character.
First of all, Myanmar is an extremely pro-Japanese nation. I first rubbed elbows with the people and culture of Burma (which was how Myanmar was called then) back in the 1960s when I was studying at the University of Hawaii. One of my classmates was a Burmese woman named Kyukyu Mei, whose serene beauty reminded me of the wooden carving of the Miroku Bosatsu (Buddha of the Future) kept at the Koryuji Temple in Kyoto. (The Miroku Bosatsu was designated as Japan’s first national treasure in 1951.) Kyukyu, who quickly became the idol of all of the boys in our class, was not only stunningly attractive even to a female student like me, but also very pro-Japanese, and reminded me and the other students from Japan what a rich heritage we had. I am embarrassed to admit that I myself and my Japanese classmates knew or cared little about many wonderful things about our own country; our generation of Japanese subject to post-war education was strongly influenced by the progressive Japan Teachers’ Association, which refused to teach students the truth about Japan’s past.
Japan as the “True Liberator of Burma”
In A History of Myanmar: Nation of Freedom and Equality Aspiring for Independence and Self-Respect (Canary Shobo, Tokyo; 2011), former Japanese ambassador to Myanmar Yoichi Yamaguchi discusses his passion for the nation: “Many people in Myanmar simply believe that they were able to ‘gain independence thanks to Japan,’ although strictly speaking, maintaining so may be difficult from an historic perspective.”
In this regard, the author also references Breakthrough in Burma (Yale University Press, US; 1968), the autobiography of Dr. Bo Maw, who became Burma’s head of state in 1943. (A Japanese edition entitled Dawn of Burma, translated by Yoichi Yokohori was first published in 1973 by Taiyo Shuppan, Tokyo.) Bo Maw is quoted as saying: “The real liberator of Burma was not the British Labor Party government under Prime Minister Clement Richard Attlee, but General Hideki Tojo and the government of the Great Empire of Japan…Viewed historically, no other nation did more than Japan to contribute to shaking Asia free from the white man’s rule.”
Although a growing number of Japanese today are more willing than before to see the truth about their nation’s past and detach themselves from the view that only Japan was to blame for the war in the Asia-Pacific, there still are many who are unable to view their nation’s past with confidence. Against this backdrop, Japanese find extremely encouraging the pro-Japanese sentiments that the people of Myanmar have entertained over the years. It is worth remembering that Myanmar’s warm feelings towards Japan and its negative sentiments and cautiousness towards China are the opposite sides of the same coin. According to Yamaguchi, such a viewpoint has largely resulted from the merciless invasions of Myanmar repeated over centuries by China’s Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties.
Myanmar boldly stood face to face with invading Chinese forces, managing to repeatedly repel attacks, except when it was overwhelmed by a Mongolian force led by Kublai Khan and was forced to retreat to the capital. At the time, the Mongolian force conquered the capital, but was to be harassed by tenacious guerilla warfare instigated by the Burmese, and eventually retreated without posting occupation forces. Comments Yamaguchi with feeling: “There are historians who are convinced that, if the Burmese had not left the legacy of such tenacious resistance, more of Southeast Asia would likely have been swallowed by China, creating a situation significantly different from today.”
In the same way as it narrowly checked Chinese invasion on its border, Myanmar today appears to be determined to play a role of blocking China’s advances. It is undeniable that the military junta, which came to power in 1988 and has lasted almost a quarter century, did indeed seek closer ties with China. However, it has in some ways been a reaction to the economic sanctions implemented by Europe and the US in response to the suppression by the military regime of dissenters like Suu Kyi.
Being impoverished, Myanmar finds it difficult to be economically without outside support, especially from its powerful neighbor. So it has willy-nilly brought itself into a closer relationship with China, which is not a pro-China line in the true sense of the word, stresses Yamaguchi. He explains: “When the US and Europe banned weapons exports to Myanmar, they reluctantly had to take Chinese-made weapons. However, when China proposed that it send its military personnel to Myanmar to train Myanmarese soldiers in the use of those weapons, its military junta resolutely rejected the proposal, maintaining instead that they had plans to dispatch Myanmarese military officers to China for the required training. They thus sternly rejected the Chinese plan to establish a military presence in Myanmar.”
Myanmar and Tibet as “Blood Brothers”
And yet China’s advances into Myanmar were enforced whether Myanmar liked it or not - focused on the economy. However, I am convinced that the progress of democratization will inevitably lead to an increase in investments by Japan, the US, and Europe, among others. A new situation has now emerged in Myanmar in which increased investments by nations other than China can lead to an acceleration of its democratization, which in turn sets the stage for attracting still further investments, eventually curbing the Chinese influence over Myanmar. The results of the bi-election this month will no doubt give impetus to such a welcome development.
I have no doubt that the effects of Myanmar’s successful rejuvenation as a democratic state, buoyed by a vigorous economy, will positively affect her neighbors — Tibet, Uyghur, and Mongolia. The basis of such a prediction is the thickness of blood that bands the Myanmarese and Tibetans together. Explains Yamaguchi: “The ancestors of the Burmese race are people who moved south from the Tibetan highlands off and on from 200 B.C. through 900 A.D. The reasons for their exodus are obvious from lithographed records, which show that these people decided to flee Tibet in order to hold on to their principles of independence and self-respect, as the Tibetan kingdom at the time suffered from persistent Chinese suppression.”
A look at a globe enables one to quickly understand the wide extent of the Tibetan highlands. China covets Tibet’s land and natural resources, and is determined to completely suppress the legitimate owners, the Tibetan people, plotting to cleanse them ethnically if at all possible. But the Myanmarese treasure the strong linkage of blood with the Tibetans, who have over centuries persevered against the Chinese suppression. Naturally, they are profoundly interested in and concerned about each other as real blood brothers. That being the case, any positive changes in Myanmar will significantly encourage and affect Tibet going forward.
Against such a background, General Secretary Hu Jintao visited Cambodia in late March, promising financial cooperation worth 450 million yuan (US$71.3 million) and agreeing to double the bilateral trade volume over the next five years. Chinese initiatives promoting economic benefits appear endless. However, the prospects for success of their modus operandi look grim so long as the Chinese deny freedom, which constitutes a fundamental yearning of man.
(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” in the April 12, 2012 issue of The Weekly Shincho.)