“As matters stand now, Japan will inevitably be defeated in cyber warfare -€ the new form of war in the 21st century -€ in which the result will either be a perfect victory or devastating defeat, with nothing in between. Once Japan becomes involved in such warfare, there will be no such thing as winning 20% of the time while losing 80%, or winning 30% while losing 70% -€ as has often been the case with mankind’s wars in the past. Nor, will there be any chance of just squeezing by to a victory, such as the Japanese triumph in the Russo-Japanese War. This is what is scary about cyber warfare.”
　　　This somber warning comes from Hiroshi Itoh, one of Japan’s top cyber security specialists and head of the Cyber Security Institute, an outfit of LAC Holdings, Inc., of Tokyo. Itoh previously served as the first commander of the System Protect Unit of the Cyber Ｗarfare Corps of the Japan Ground Self Defense Force (JGSDF), a post he resigned in 2007 to land his present position.
　　　Although the Japanese mass media reported last September that major defense-related corporations in Japan, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., had just suffered a series of cyber attacks, Itoh points out cyber attacks targeting Japan had actually begun a decade earlier.
　　　Since around 2000, when cyber attacks against US and Japanese corporations became noticeable, the US has steadily been implementing effective countermeasures, viewing the phenomenon as a key issue of national security. As a cyber specialist, Itoh is seriously concerned about the present environment in Japan, which downplays the serious effects of cyber warfare, pointing out that Japan, unlike the US, has closed its eyes to the crisis, hidden real damage, and failed to implement adequate countermeasures as a result.
　　　“In the 20th century, wars were won by the side that secured air superiority, but wars in this century will be won by the side that commands cyber space. Cybernetics has almost completely changed the concept of traditional warfare. Against such a backdrop, however, I must admit that Japan is the least prepared among the world’s advanced nations.”
　　　A particular characteristic of cyber warfare is that it is extremely difficult to detect the very fact that one is being been attacked, not to mention who actually instigated the attack.
　　　The attacker has plenty of time to develop the scheme of his attack before actually implementing it. Meanwhile, there is a high possibility that by the time the attacked ascertains the strike against him, he will already have suffered such devastating damage that he will be unable to respond. In other words, the attacker has a clear advantage in cyber warfare; the side that clings to an exclusively defensive posture, such as Japan, has absolutely no chance of victory. It is bound to be defeated.

“Attacks by Patriotic Hackers”

　　　Another characteristic of cyber war is that it is a war that can be instigated not only by the state but by individuals as well. No longer is war a game played by soldiers, which means that war will be much more difficult to control in the 21st century. In traditional warfare, the state as well as the military are compelled to exercise discretion when it comes to troop mobilization because the lives of many soldiers and civilians may be sacrificed. The costs involved may also be astronomical.
　　　However, in cyber warfare, an able hacker -€ either by himself or teamed up with just a handful of comrades -€ can launch an attack without being exposed to personal danger or incurring huge costs. As can be seen in the so called “Georgian case,” many citizens may be enticed to join in an attack. In this vein, stresses Itoh, the 21st century is indeed a century that carries very high risks of war.
　　　By the “Georgian case,” I mean the 2008 South Ossetia War (also known as the Russia-Georgia War), during which ferocious cyber attacks were launched against the core of the critical Georgian infrastructure, including the office of the President, the Parliament, the Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry, and the media. An outline of the attacks is contained in Itoh’s just published work, The Fifth Battle Ground: Threats of Cyber Warfare (Shoden-sha, Tokyo).
　　　According to Itoh, experts concluded that the cyber attacks were not instigated by the Russian Army, but by a group of Russia’s patriotic hackers who called themselves “on-line partisans.” Georgian hackers countered but were ultimately defeated, as they were unable to work as a team because of the heavy damage sustained to their information exchange websites in the initial Russian offensive. It looked as though the Russian Army did not have a hand in the attacks. However, it was later pointed out the army may possibly have enticed patriotic hackers in Russia to participate in the attacks.
　　　Hearing about “patriotic attacks” that flood the Internet, Japanese instantly are reminded of Chinese youths engaged in anti-Japanese demonstrations, chanting their favorite “Patriots Are Not Guilty” slogan. A nightmarish scenario also comes to mind -€ of millions of Chinese hackers attacking Japan as they wage a 21st century cyber war in order to satisfy their “patriotism.”
　　　It can be safely said that most of the cyber attacks against the US and Japan are traceable to China. Frankly, however, China cannot help being so blamed. This was dramatically demonstrated by Unrestricted Warfare, a controversial book published in China in 1999. Attracting international attention, the volume was written by two air force colonels of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) -€ Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui -€ and is understood to reflect the thinking of the PLA. With a possible war against the US in the back of their minds, which they admit China would stand no chance of winning with military might, the authors wrote that China should employ every other possible means and strategy -€ such as terrorism, chemical and biochemical weapons, and psychological warfare -€ in order to defeat the US. The authors positioned cyber attacks as one of the vital means helping China achieve the goal. In fact, China has over the years implemented a variety of measures to beef up its cyber war strength. Explains Itoh:
　　　“China needs more than just military capability in order to defeat the US. Because they are unable to train enough qualified personnel on their own, the Chinese incorporate excellent civilian talent right into the PLA, together with the companies they work for. If need be, they can place a whole private corporation under military command, readily making its president a new commander.”

“Nuclear Retaliation”

　　　The US has evidently defined this as “warfare.” The 2011 Department of Defense Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace clearly states the US will be prepared to retaliate with not only cyber weapons but also conventional weapons including missiles, depending on the scope of the attacks and the seriousness of damage sustained, notes Itoh. The DoD report stops short of specifying the scope of attack which would warrant retaliation by missiles, but shows the US, if attacked, is fiercely determined to take action. The US clearly feels that cyber attacks are an extremely serious matter of national security. This stance is not limited to the US alone, however. Itoh points out that Russia has once gone so far as to state that there could potentially be “nuclear retaliation” in the face of cyber attacks.
　　　And yet, China never ceases its cyber attacks. While nations around the world, like China, are going all out to prepare for cyber warfare from an offensive and defensive standpoint, Japan alone is moving extremely slowly.
　　　“Unfortunately, Japan’s thinking is fundamentally different,” laments Itoh. “When subject to cyber attacks, any other nation copes with the contingency with the military taking a primary role. In Japan, however, the Self Defense Forces aren’t entrusted with such duties.”
　　　The world regards cyber attacks as war and the military deals with them. It has been made plain that the 3rd section of the PLA’s Office of the General Staff is charged with strategy involving cyber attacks against Japan. This section has a staff of more than 130,000 -€ an enormous complement, indeed.
　　　Quite naturally, the US, Russia, North Korea, and South Korea, all position cyber attacks as warfare. Japan alone fails to recognize the precariousness of its position and the seriousness of the threat to its national security. The absence of a keen sense of crisis, as Itoh succinctly points out, derives from what is sorely missing in Japan’s post-war “peace” constitution.
　　　“The constitution commits Japan to an exclusively defensive posture,” notes Itoh. “If the Self Defense Forces are to be mobilized, the law requires them to be ordered to serve defensive functions. Before that, however, evidence of armed attacks creating actual physical loss, destruction, and/or damage must be ascertained. Since cyber attacks create none of these, the situation does not warrant defensive mobilization.”
　　　If this appalling situation is allowed to prevail any longer, I am afraid Japan will indeed be defeated in any future cyber wrfare -€ sooner than later.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 498 in the February 23, 2012 issue of The Weekly Shincho.)