India and Japan Should Cooperate to Fill Asia’s Security Void
The United States increasingly looks inward, raising questions about its commitment to world security as the only super power. Accordingly, Japan is compelled to rethink its own grand strategy for survival. For this, it turns naturally to India.
Professor Tadae Takubo, deputy director of the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals (JINF), a private Tokyo think tank, points to significant changes in the U.S. public’s views on their nation’s wars following 9/11. He quotes from a July CBS/New York Times opinion poll:
“Asked if they think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, only 35 percent of the respondents replied ‘yes,’ while as much as 58 percent feel the U.S. ‘should not be involved.’ War-weariness on the part of the general populace in the U.S. has steadily been accelerated by bulging financial deficits. Against such a backdrop, any U.S. retreat from the Asian security scene is conspicuous, especially because the world’s only super power once positioned itself as a Pacific nation and pledged support for nations faced with the Chinese threat, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). ”
On September 21, the U.S. government announced its decision to postpone the projected sale of 66 new Lockheed F16C/D fighter jets to Taiwan and to retrofit Taiwan’s fleet of 145 older F-16s by upgrading their electronics. The decision obviously reflected Washington’s concern over China’s bitter opposition to such transactions.
As a Pacific nation, the U.S. commitment to the region’s security, however, calls for every effort to support Taiwan’s status quo, including the sale of strategic equipment. These two factors are important pillars of the U.S. commitment. By showing excessive concern for China, the Obama administration clearly backtracked on its pledge.
Any such U.S. timidity toward China inevitably opens a void in the peace and security of the Asian region. For one thing, such a U.S. posture allows China to savor its aggressive diplomacy and uninhibited military policy, encouraging it to continue pursuing unmitigated expansionism. Now is the time for all peace-loving nations in the region to join hands to deal adroitly with China. For this, close teamwork between India and Japan is particularly important.
Let us review the state of affairs between India and Japan today and their post-war bilateral relations. Despite the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, Japan still is a strong economic power - the world’s third largest economy, although recently surpassed by China in GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The U.S. leads the world in GDP at some $15 trillion, followed by China and Japan at around $5 trillion each. Fourth is Germany at $3.3 trillion. In terms of population, Japan (127 million) is barely 40 percent of the U.S. (312 million), and a mere 10 percent of China (1.3 billion). Japan fairs quite well despite such a huge population gap, thanks to its high technological level and its exceptionally eager and diligent work force.
India as Japan’s Most Important Partner
Meanwhile, India with a population of 1.2 billion is expected to eventually surpass China in both population and economy. The world’s largest democracy, India is unequivocally different from China. Further, India has freedom of religion and shares many important values with Japan.
In his keynote address last month to the Indian Council on World Affairs (ICWA), former Japanese Prime Minister Shintaro Abe advocated closer India-Japan ties. He noted:
“After the end of the war, the Indian Parliament has never, ever, failed to hold a moment of silence each and every year for the victims of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. India is an extremely pro-Japanese nation that understands Japan and its people from a historic perspective to an extent far greater than we Japanese can ever hope for. It is a shame that this aspect is too little known in Japan.”
Because India and Japan have much in common in terms of political and economic infrastructures, views on international security and history, I am convinced that promotion of interchanges between India and Japan will unquestionably benefit both nations, as well as contribute to the stability and peace of the whole of Asia.
The main purpose of the September 19 visit to India by a JINF delegation (which joined Abe and a nonpartisan Japanese Diet mission) reflected the Japanese think tank’s recognition that Japan’s most important partner in Asia is not China but India, and that strengthened India-Japan relations will significantly serve the national interests of both nations.
JINF co-sponsored a seminar with ICWA, regarded as the most traditional think tank in India. An interview and luncheon with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, an interview with Defense Minister A.K. Kumar, and a reception hosted by Minister of Science and Technology Dr. Ashwani Kumar were among the highlights of our stay in New Delhi. Following a series of exchanges of opinions and ideas, both sides reaffirmed that India and Japan are ready to move beyond mere recognition of the importance of their bilateral relationship to putting such recognition into practice as early as possible.
In his keynote address, Abe passionately appealed to influential Indians from both government and private sectors. Noting that the seas bind Asia together, he urged India and Japan to join together to sustain open, free and safe navigation, with both maritime democracies regarding the open seas as the public property of the international community. He drew a loud round of applause when he declared:“Please let your navy meet the Japanese naval force more often at sea.”
As is generally known, the 2001-2010 refueling missions in the Indian Ocean by Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) was abruptly called off by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) which took power in 2009. As of now, however, MSDF engages in anti-piracy operations off Somalia.
The audience at the ICWA auditorium roared with cheers again when Abe remarked:“You may want to send out your naval ships whenever the Japanese navy passes across the Indian Ocean either on their way for duty, or on their way home, so they can perform simple exercises. Our two navies can exchange flag signals. Or, they can speak with each other using traditional light signals. Even to run in formation can make a good exercise…The Americans may watch us performing small exercises, which is OK with all of us. Even the Chinese may fly over us to see what is going on, which is more than welcome.”
Japan Can Help Promote India-US Relations
With China busy with launching fleets of large scale warships, including aircraft carriers, there is no question that the primary purpose of its military build-up is to awe its enemies into losing their fighting spirit before actually fighting. This is exactly what China welcomes as the political effect of its military build-up - the fruit it secretly plots to harvest. If that is the case, it would be wise for China’s neighbors - including India and Japan, of course - to assume a similar posture.
In his address, Abe proposed that the Japanese navy call at the Indian Navy’s base on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal “from time to time.” He specifically suggested that photos and videos be circulated internationally of joint exercises at sea, of Indian officers visiting Djibouti, where Japan maintains its first overseas military base since the end of the war, and of the Japanese navy’s calls on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Abe is convinced that the images of Indian and Japanese navies cooperating with each other - regardless of how small the scale of such bilateral collaboration may be in the beginning - would create political effects and help check China’s expansionist aims.
Abe’s proposals will simultaneously prompt Japan to once again trust itself and act responsibly as the world’s third largest economic power and a trustworthy member of the international community. Japan should not forever evade its responsibility by unduly restraining itself to refuse to do anything military because it once fought “the wrong war.” The Japanese must regain their traditional posture of trusting and disciplining themselves, and fulfilling their responsibilities honorably. That is exactly the posture India is expecting from Japan.
Until now, the U.S. has sustained the safety and stability of the sea lines of commerce across the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. There was a particularly loud applause when Abe stressed the need for India and Japan to work closely together for the future, in tandem with the U.S., while the latter still maintains absolute superiority as the super power “so there will be no strategic void” in Asia.
China will remain both an opportunity and a risk to most nations on earth, Abe observed. If any nation should show the slightest willingness to compromise, China, clinging to an archaic autocracy in the twenty-first century, will conveniently misunderstand such a gesture and take it as a sign of weakness. No action should be taken by any nation that would encourage China to take risks instead of peaceful opportunities. That is why a strategic partnership between India and Japan is absolutely crucial as an anti-Chinese deterrent.
Abe further noted that the United States and Japan have maintained an uninterrupted and mutually beneficial alliance the past 60 years, a time span longer than a quarter of the entire history of the United States. He added that he believes India can make use of Japan’s amicable relationship with the U.S., nurtured by this long alliance, in order to deepen its relationship with the U.S.
I firmly believe that the mettle Japan has demonstrated in the past on its way to a responsible big power should once again constitute the foundation of a new grand strategy for its survival in a new turbulent era.
(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 480 in the October 13, 2011 ツ黴issue of The Weekly Shincho.)