China Out to Dissolve ASEAN Unity over the South China Sea
With a fierce struggle for hegemony developing over the South China Sea, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is buffeted betweenツ黴 military threat and economic pull as China progresses steadily towards making the ocean territory its own “inland sea.”
Warns Tadae Takubo, an expert on international affairs who serves as Professor Emeritus at Kyorin Univeristy in Tokyo:
“ASEAN’s united stance concerning the South China Sea, which appeared to have finally been achieved last year, has since been disrupted by China. We should exercise maximum caution vis-a-vis China’s ploy to entice Vietnam and Indonesia away from the association’s other members. Unfortunately, however, I don’t think either Japan or the United States has sufficiently come to grips with the seriousness of the Chinese plot.”
It was last year that the US, gravely alarmed by China’s outrageous behavior in the South China Sea, clearly stood on the side of ASEAN by calling for “freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.” At the time, ASEAN appeared to have managed to secure unity against the Chinese threat.
But China moved swiftly by forging ahead with its first joint naval maneuver with Thailand. The country has for years taken part in Joint Operation Cobra Gold — a naval exercise conducted with the US, which has carried out similar exercises with four other nations in the Pacific region (Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines). China adroitly approached Thailand - with which it has no direct conflict over the South China Sea - and extended a huge grant as well as signed a framework agreement on the construction of a high-speed railway linking the two nations. Shortly before then - on October 21 to be specific - the Thai government announced that the territorial issues involving the South China Sea area are “a bilateral matter which should not be brought up as a topic for general discussion” at the ASEAN meeting to be held in Hanoi. Thai Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban later expressed his hope for an early completion of a high-speed train network on a grandiose scale linking China, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, and Singapore, so as to strengthen economic and trade interchanges between China and the ASEAN member nations.
In the same way as it has attempted to settle grievances related to the recent high-speed train disaster in Wenzhou in eastern China by offering large amounts of compensation, China clearly seeks to resort to its abundant financial resources in trying to resolve the weighty problems involving sovereignty over land and sea territories. Even Indonesia, considered a leading nation in ASEAN due to its population (the world’s fourth largest with over 237 million) and ample natural resources, becomes docile when faced with China’s money diplomacy.
Next Target: Vietnam
Points out Prof. Takubo:“Premier Wen Jiaobao visited Indonesia last April 28 and painted a rosy picture of future China-Indonesia relations, announcing that, by 2015, China is set to double the bilateral trade volume, currently at $40 billion, and declaring it will extend a $9 billion loan to Indonesia. China obviously is attempting to tie up Indonesia with money.”
According to Prof. Takubo, China’s next target is Vietnam, which has maintained a love-hate relationship with China, with whom it shares borders and records of bitterly fought wars against each other.
Vietnam took a hard stance against China at the ASEAN Regional Forum held in Hanoi on July 23, 2010.The relationship between the two countries looked threatening as a result of China’s capture of 31 Vietnamese fishing vessels operating in the South China Sea.
Last May 26, there was another incident, causing their bilateral relations to deteriorate further: Chinese patrol vessels cut the exploration cables of an oil survey ship belonging to the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam) operating in an exploration site well within the country’s 200-nautical mile continental shelf - some 138 miles east of the Vietnamese shoreline and approximately 375 miles south of China’s Hainan Island.
The Vietnamese government strongly protested the Chinese action, declaring it would “take any and every measure necessary to secure our territorial waters.” But the Chinese side paid no attention, claiming its action constituted “normal control activities.” Five days later, on May 31, three Chinese Navy battleships fired warning shots at four Vietnamese fishing vessels on the seas off the Spratly Islands.
At the Asia Security Conference held in Singapore on June 5, Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Phung Quang Thanh unleashed a scathing criticism of China, claiming the Chinese action was “creating a serious concern over the security of the region, both on land and in the seas.” Anti-Chinese demonstrations were staged in Vietnam beginning that day - a highly unusual development in a country under communist dictatorship, which usually crushes any demonstrations the minute they begin. This time, however, Vietnamese authorities kept giving the demonstrations tacit approval. Further, on June 13, the Vietnamese navy conducted a live-shell shooting maneuver despite objections from the US, which had maintained that a demonstration of military power would be counterproductive, as it “would only cause tensions to heighten.”
In July, however, a strange change began to develop in Vietnam. Points out Prof. Takubo:
“From July 15, the US and Vietnam conducted joint naval activities. Initially, the maneuver was scheduled to be opened to all media, but a sudden decision was made to make it a closed affair. As a result, the two Aegis-class warships of the US Navy which took part in the maneuver ended up being deployed far off-shore. It presumably reflected the desire of the Vietnamese authorities to prevent the mass media from reporting on the extent of Vietnam’s deterrence capability against China by keeping the media as far away as possible from the scene of the maneuver.”
Beginning on July10, the Vietnamese government also began to hold back the anti-Chinese demonstrations that had been regularly staged every Sunday. It would be reasonable to assume that the Vietnamese government is implementing a significant shift in its policy towards China.
“Signs of such a shift could be observed in the joint naval patrols conducted by China and Vietnam in mid-June,” notes Prof. Takubo. “At the time, Vietnamese navy battleships made a port call at Zhanjiang near Hainan Island, the home port for the Chinese South Sea Fleet.
Hainan Island is the site of a vital naval base for China. In March 2009, the USNS Impeccable - an unarmed US Navy ocean surveillance ship - was harassed by five Chinese battleships in international waters in the South China Sea quite a distance from Hainan Island. The Chinese ships encircled the Impeccable, tossing logs and threatening to damage its screw in an attempt to obstruct its passage. This violent reaction to the Impeccable’s presence was said to have reflected a dire desire on the Chinese part not to allow any information pertaining to the submarine base on Hainan to be collected. And yet, the Vietnamese navy had easy access to Hainan Island - the vital military stronghold China is extremely hypersensitive about.
Japanese Should Recognize the Crisis before Their Very Eyes
“On June 25, Vietnamese Deputy Foreign Minister Ho Xuan Son met with Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo in Beijing,” continues Prof. Takubo. “Obviously, they must have discussed things of major importance beyond ordinary matters such as trade promotion and friendship. But details have yet to leak out.”
What is evident is this: China’s maneuvering vis-a-vis ASEAN has steadily been producing the desired results, causing unity among ASEAN to begin to disintegrate. Under such circumstances, the Philippines clearly jumped on the US bandwagon. On June 1, the foreign ministry of the Philippines announced it had protested that Chinese survey ships operating within the territorial waters of the Philippines off the Spratly Islands had repeatedly “violated our sovereignty, unilaterally erecting iron pillars and setting up buoys.”
However, the Philippines Navy is virtually non-existent, with only one large battleship and 62 small-sized missile boats. To make matters worse, its largest battleship is a World War II vintage ship given away by the U.S. Navy. Compared to this sorry lineup, the Chinese Navy has 65 submarines, 80 large battleships, and 253 missile boats.
“The Philippines has cast itself on the mercy of the US this time,” points out Prof. Takubo. “In 1992, the nation forced the closure of the US naval base at Subic Bay, forcing the US armed forces out of the country. It can be said that the Philippines, cowed by the Chinese threat, has implored the US this time to declare that it will apply the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty to the South China Sea, claiming that it has not abrogated the treaty despite the departure of the US forces.”
The US has accommodated the request. It can be said that, for the first time, it has made clear its stance regarding the situation in the South China Sea - that there will be US military involvement in case of an emergency.
However, the US has a tough nut to crack. For one thing, the US is a democratic state plagued by severe financial deficits. Besides, its leadership must particularly be mindful of public opinion as regards a new military engagement far overseas. Whereas China is under a communist dictatorship with abundant financial resources unbound by public opinion. Furthermore, it takes action as it pleases, with no regard to international law. In all fairness, the situation in the South China Sea is very similar to the grave circumstances faced by Japan in the East China Sea. Who can rightly claim that Japan - with its fragile military and economic power - will not be forced into a position similar to that of the Philippines? We should never forget that the crisis for Japan is right before our very eyes.
(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 472 in the combined August 11-18, 2011 issue of The Weekly Shincho.)