More than two months after it toppled the government of President Ben Ali in Tunisia, the “Jasmine Revolution” in the Middle East continues, with the people in the streets across the region demanding fairness and freedom.  Meanwhile, with one eye on the events unfolding in the Middle East, the 11^th National People’s Congress got under way. On March 5, in his opening remarks, Premier Wen Jiabao reflected the profound sense of crisis now enveloping the Communist Party of China (CPC) and its determination to not travel down the same path as that tread by the despotic leaders in the Middle East.

　　　Wen spoke with emotion on the opening day of the Congress: “We need to put people first, ensuring the improvement of their wellbeing as the starting point and goal of all our efforts, unwaveringly working for prosperity for all and making certain that everyone shares in the fruits of China’s development.” Then, in rapid succession, Premier Wen listed a series of national objectives for China to achieve over the next five years. He vowed China will: maintain at 7% the annual GDP growth rate and stabilize price levels; hold the urban unemployment rate to 5% while creating 45 million new jobs, or 9 million per year; raise the school attendance rate of its nine-year compulsory education program to 93%; increase the per capital disposable income of urban residents and the per capita net income of rural residents by an annual average of over 7%, while raising the minimum income which determines the poverty line. Through these actions, China aims to drastically reduce the number of those living in poverty.

　　　China undoubtedly is making a desperate effort to alleviate the accumulated discontent and frustration of rural residents and the deprived, as well as members of the younger generation having extreme difficulty in finding work. Clearly, Chinese leaders are more than mindful of the “Jasmine Revolution” gaining momentum in nations in the Middle East and beyond. Actually, it is impossible to generalize the whole of the Middle East as one entity since the region is tremendously diverse, made up of nations each with its unique state of affairs. However, a common denominator is mounting grievances over the obstruction of freedom and disparity in the distribution of wealth. China faces the same situation. But So Tomisaka, a journalist well versed in the Chinese situation, notes the reality is incomparably tougher in China.

　　　Tomisaka, who once studied at the University of Beijing and has been actively engaged in the coverage of China-related affairs with ample knowledge about modern China, explains:

　　　“I would say that the difference between the Middle East and China is whether or not democracy itself is attainable if the people fight for it. In my view, how to get by each passing day is a matter of greater importance for the average Chinese than such lofty notions as freedom of speech and democracy. The populace at large in China is preoccupied with some incredibly tough problems – the dire difficulty of finding jobs for students, subsistence-level remuneration for many workers, and discrimination and the daily hardship of life for farmers. Therefore, rather than springing into action immediately to emulate Tunisians and other Middle Easters who have taken part in the Jasmine Revolution, most Chinese appear to be prudently taking a wait and see attitude about the situation in their own country.”

Strengthening Party Leadership

　　　In Tomisaka’s view, the revolutionary movement begun in the Middle East would not too readily instigate political unrest in China. This I believe is due largely to the abnormally stringent control of the CPC exercises over the populace. However, Tomisaka notes the sense of frustration and discontent accumulated on the part of those Chinese at the bottom of the social scale is far more aggravated than in the Middle East. Therefore, he terms it a virtually impossible task for the Chinese leadership to continue suppressing people’s grievances over the long term.

　　　It has been said that more than 100,000 riots occur in China annually. But Tomisaka points out that this figure applies to the China of several years ago, noting that domestic unrest has seriously been aggravated these past few years, with riots now occurring across China between 200,000 and 300,000 times a year. In other words, there are at least 550 riots every day in China, calculated on the basis of 200,000 riots a year. Until now, all of these riots have been put down by the CPC with the use of force. Tomisaka compared to methane hydrate the discontent of the Chinese people which has settled on the bottom of the social pyramid like a dense fog. “When the crucial moment comes, the anger and frustration of the Chinese people will most likely burst into horrendous flames like methane hydrate. However, every single opportunity there has been in the past for the people to swing into action has been crushed, and the Chinese people really have yet to find out how to go about it at this juncture.”

　　　The sense of crisis felt by the CPC over the existence of the “methane hydrate-like” anger and frustration of the Chinese people, alongside the fear of some day having to be subject to a situation which will most likely prove utterly uncontrollable no matter what is done about it, is obvious from this year’s Chinese budgetary measures announced at the Congress. Specifically, China’s defense budget will rise 12.7% to 601.1 billion yuan ($91.7 billion) over 2010, constituting double-digit growth once again. For 23 years since 1989, China has steadfastly been on the road to a military buildup that can only be described as abnormal.

　　　However, here is a set of numbers that can hardly escape attention: China’s internal security budget will jump by an alarming 13.8% this year, covering the costs for armed police, public security forces, and militia. All told, the internal security budget for 2011 is a whopping 627 billion yuan ($95 billion) – bigger than its purported defense budget. The CPC not only has spread fear around the world by engaging in a perverse military buildup on a monumental scale, but also put its own populace under further surveillance and suppression as it pours funds exceeding its total military budget into internal security.

　　　Wen told the Congress:”We must ensure that power is exercised properly… (and) make institutional changes to end the excessive concentration of power and lack of checks on power.”

　　　At its face value, what Wen said may be taken as meaning he is determined to root out and corruption committed by the CPC. And yet, he made the following remarks as well:”We will improve the contingency response system (to cope with such disturbances as large-scale demonstrations), and enhance society’s capacity to manage crises and withstand risks. We will intensify our information security and secrecy, and improve management of information networks (including Internet controls).”

　　　In other words, Wen was simply stating that the CPC will strengthen its leadership in order to protect the Chinese state system, stringently control information, and will in no way condone anti-government activities. Wen’s determination becomes more clear-cut when coupled with an important address President Hu Jintao made at the Central Party School in Beijing two weeks before.

　　　Hu emphasized the importance of “strengthening and innovation in social management” and “improving party leadership.” He also stressed that China should “further strengthen and improve information network management, enhance the management level of the virtual society, and improve online media guidance mechanisms.”

Back to the Old System of State Control

　　　It was against such a backdrop that Chinese authorities deployed large numbers of security and police officers, including plainclothes detectives, to block “quiet strolling” protest meetings expected to be attended by average Chinese citizens. These gatherings have been held every Sunday since February 20 in a manner reminiscent of the Jasmine Revolution in the Middle East. Tight restrictions were also suddenly imposed on members of the foreign media out to cover the “strolling.”

　　　In a dispatch from Shanghai dated March 6, the New York Times dramatically reported on the restrictions. On that day, two dozen foreign journalists, including several Japanese, were herded into an underground bunker-like room, where they were kept for two hours. At around 5:30 a.m. Sunday before the sun was up, Chinese security men reportedly knocked on the doors of reporters representing the New York Times, the Associated Press. CNN, NBC, Bloomberg News, as well as others, warning them against covering the Internet-inspired protest scheduled later in the day. Bob Dietz, Asian Program Coordinator for the Committee to Protect Journalists headquartered in New York, described such sinister restrictive measures against the foreign media as “the worst attack on the foreign press since the 2008 Olympics.”

　　　China, which relaxed its infamous control of the foreign press in preparation for the Beijing Olympics, has slipped back into the old system of rigid state control. However, Chinese leaders should bear in mind that human beings inherently crave freedom. Even as china prioritizes economic growth, the more successful its economic policies, the more freedom its people will demand. What has been happening in the Middle East since February is an eloquent reminder to us all that the virtually limitless flow of information mankind has acquired for the first time thanks to the Internet comes hand in hand with a never-ending craving for freedom. No longer can anyone in his right mind expect himself to successfully block the flow of information. And yet, President Hu, Premier Wen and others in the CPC leadership appear to somehow believe they can.

　　　What should Japan do under the circumstances? I am convinced that, at this important juncture, this nation should resolutely promote man’s inherent values that call for freedom and justice. In late 2006, when the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was still in power, the conservative party advocated value-oriented diplomacy, which was responded to quite favorably by the international community when the then Foreign Minister Taro Aso announced it. Now is the time for the Democratic Party of Japan, which took over from the LDP two years ago, to make up its mind to adopt this viable diplomatic policy beyond party lines.

(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 452 in the March 17, 2011 issue of The Weekly Shincho.)