China Casts Dark Shadow over 2012 Presidential Election in Taiwan
With the presidential election just a half year away, a fierce political battle is underway in the Republic of China (Taiwan). The Kuomintang of China - the ruling Chinese Nationalist Party - has nominated incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou as its presidential candidate, and Secretary General of the Komintang Premier Wu Den-yih as his running mate for vice president. Pitted against Ma for the Democratic Progressive Party will likely be party leader (Ms.) Tsai In-Wen. The party will hold its convention in August, at which time a vice presidential candidate will be nominated and the party platform vis-a-vis China, as well as Japan, outlined.
Because Taiwan is indisputably one of the world’s most pro-Japanese countries, Japan and its people cannot afford to remain indifferent to the country’s future. The relief funds for the victims of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami donated by the Taiwanese, who number some 23 million, amounted to a stunning 20 billion (US$250 million). This, however, was not the result of any fund-raising campaigns led by President Ma. Rather, it was the accumulated total of donations made by a large number of people in the island nation. In other words, it genuinely reflects the affection and friendship of the Taiwanese for Japan.
Visiting Taiwan last March 19 to address the third World Taiwanese Congress, slightly over a week after the Great East Japan Earthquake, I was immensely touched by the encouraging words people at every street corner showered me with as soon as they thought I might be Japanese. I heard things - such as “Keep up the fight, Japan!”; “Don’t let the disaster get you down. Japan will certainly bounce back on its feet again”; and “We Taiwanese are always on your side.” These and many other encouraging words, uttered by total strangers nearly brought me to tears as I realized how much the people of Taiwan care for my mother country.
Will the people of Taiwan once again vote for the Nationalist Party in the presidential election slated for next January? Or will they allow the Democratic Progressive Party to come into power instead? Their choice next January will not only determine futureTaiwan-China relations, but also significantly affect the fate of Japan as well as the whole of Asia.
The most distinctive characteristic of the Nationalist Party lies in the speed with which it hopes to forge closer relations with China. The essence of their position can be found in the so-called “consensus of 1992.” President Ma has demanded that Tsai make clear whether or not the opposition party recognizes the “92 consensus” and if the answer is no, how the Democratic Progressive Party plans to pursue its China policy.
This “consensus” will surely be one of the major focal points of the election debates. What exactly is this? In brief, it is an agreement that recognizes in spirit “one China, different interpretations.” This understanding is said to have been reached at a meeting in Hong Kong in 1992 between semi-official representatives from Taiwan and China. Put simply, this means that, although there is only one China, what name it is called by is left to the discretion of the two parties. So, Taiwan can call itself the Republic of China, as it does today, and China the People’s Republic of China. The important point here is to have Taiwan recognize “one China” under Chinese terms.
“I Am a New Taiwanese.”
The existence of this agreement was first pointed out in Taiwanese political circles in 2000. But strangely, Koo Chen-fu, former director of the Straits Exchange Foundation, who represented Taiwan in discussions with China at the time, denied its existence categorically. In 2003, when he visited Japan to be awarded an honorary doctor’s degree at Waseda University, he again denied the existence of such an agreement in no uncertain terms. Similarly, former President Lee Teng-hui has also denied it.
Despite such denials, however, the “consensus” is hotly discussed in Taiwan still today because President Ma himself positions the agreement as the pillar of Taiwan’s policy towards China. Explains Koh Se-kai, former chief Taiwanese representative to Japan:
“It has already been widely revealed in Taiwan that the 1992 agreement is actually a fabricated story circulated in 2000 by Su Chi, who then served as head of the Mainland Affairs Council. Su later admitted publicly that it was a fiction. However, Mr. Ma has maintained that the constitution of the Republic of China is based on the ‘one China’ principle, and developed his argument as though the Consensus actually exists. Ma is terribly afraid Taiwan will not be able to hope for a dialogue with China unless Taiwan honors the “one China” principle.
In reality, however, China takes full advantage of the non-existent “consensus.” It goes without saying, however, that the part the Chinese side emphasizes as regards the agreement is not “different interpretations,” but “one China.”
How, then, did Democratic Progress Party Chair Tsai respond to Ma’s searching inquiry as to whether the opposition party recognizes the “consensus”? Speaking calmly, clearly and crisply, this intelligent lady in her mid-fifties replied:
“I wish to remind you that Taiwan first needs to properly stake out its position within the context of the international community. Taiwan’s foreign policy should therefore be to first of all become a respectable member of the world community, then seek contact with China as an extension of such a doctrine. Taiwan should not first seek contact with China before dealing with the international community satisfactorily. The correct choice for Taiwan should be to form a firm partnership with the world community as a step towards seeking ways to expand cooperative relations with China.”
Tsai does not directly deny the “consensus of 1992.” Nor does she refer to the “independence of Taiwan.” She is determined to commit Taiwan to balancing between its security and development by maintaining the status quo. She is not interested in irritating China unnecessarily, which is her way of delivering her tacit message to the United States that Washington has nothing to worry about, because Taiwan will not of its own volition cause any trouble in the Straits of Taiwan or the peripheral waters. Tsai continues to act with caution today, well aware that during the administration of her predecessor, Chen Shui-bian (2000-2008), Taiwan’s relations with the U.S. suffered significantly because Chen advocated Taiwan’s independence too passionately. Tsai is a mature politician.
The dark shadow of China cast over the politics of Taiwan confronts the two presidential candidates with this basic question: “Who are you?” Tsai describes herself as a full-blooded “Taiwanese.” Actually, this is a cutting allusion to Ma who, during the 2008 presidential election, emulated Lee Teng-hui’s 2002 remarks and appealed to voters by saying:”I am a new Taiwanese and will always remain one — even after I die, get cremated, and am reduced to ashes.” (Before Ma’s birth, his father had moved to Taiwan from mainland China and married a Taiwanese woman.) Ma, who is fluent in Chinese, French and English but weak in the indigenous Taiwanese language, vigorously appealed to voters that he is “a new Taiwanese” - an attempt to change his image as a pro-Chinese politician lacking the awareness of being a Taiwanese. And he won.
Promoting Closer Relations with China
However, Ma stopped calling himself a new Taiwanese the minute he became president. I hear there is a popular joke in Taiwan ridiculing Ma, which goes as follows:
“Do you know where Mr. Ma is from?”
“He’s actually from a region in Japan called ‘Shikoku’ ( i.e., Shikoku Island in central western Japan, which is literally translated as “the island of four countries.)”
“Why is that?”
“Because he has four nationalities - the Republic of China, the United States, England, and China.”
Needless to say, the Republic of China refers to Taiwan. The United States is mentioned in the joke presumably because Ma once obtained a U.S. green card granting him permanent residency. Why England? Because he was born in Hong Kong. And the reference to his Chinese “citizenship” constitutes a sharp cynicism over his unabashedly pro-Chinese posture. In essence, the joke is a satire circulated among the Taiwanese people who genuinely question where Ma’s heart belongs, i.e., whether he is a Taiwanese as he claims he is. The joke may be most annoying to Mr. Ma, but is one that well expresses the people’s sentiments towards their incumbent leader.
A typical example of the Ma administration policy of moving quickly to forge closer relations with China is the preferential Economic Cooperation Frame Work Agreement (ECFA) reached on June 29 last year. The Nationalist Party emphatically claims the agreement has created 57,000 new jobs for Taiwanese, increasing the average income significantly. The Democratic Progressive Party counters this claim by pointing out that the disparity between the haves and have-nots has become the worst in Taiwan’s history, growing by a whopping 75 fold, while real monthly income has been reduced to the standard of 12 years ago, with the unemployment rate higher than in South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. (The Sankei Shimbun, June 30, 2011)
One thing is for sure, however:Taiwan’s dependence on China has clearly increased.
In the meantime, China has deployed 400,000 People’s Liberation Army personnel on the other side of the Straits of Taiwan - more than three times the 130,000-strong Taiwanese army - as well as over 1,400 ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The pro-China policy pursued by President Ma means allowing China to manipulate Taiwan’s future at will. It is important to note that annexation of Taiwan by China would have decisively negative bearings on Japan’s fate. This is why election of Tsai Ing-wen as the next president of Taiwan would definitely be in Japan’s national interests. Nothing is more vitally important than strong support for her in the next six months until the election.
(Translated from “Renaissance Japan” column no. 470 in the July 28, 2011 issue of The Weekly Shincho.)